Agree. Being enough for these people isn't enough, they also think we should care what they have to say.
I would not include simonw with the other 3 at all. His opinions are informed by use instead of just other thoughts. Simon also releases a lot of utility tools.
These are sales speeches. They are over hyping it. AI has its niche but they are trying to plug it everywhere.
Maybe they have a point. Maybe hooking people up on software tools so they are incompetent without will pay off.
Hinton talks are hilarious. He goes from explaining perceptrons to huge claims like "this is what understanding is", "that's how our brain works", "linguists are cranks if they don't agree", and "this proves there is no god" but the last one as some weird little anecdote involving some religious migrant worker, and implies heavily that disagreeing with him is equivalent with having religious beliefs.
In general, the idea with technology is it's cheaper to do things.
It's easier to start the next widget company because building widgets with the technology is cheaper.
It's easier to consume other things because goods are cheaper to make with the tech.
A third option is that the tech enables something all together new, eg television, that starts a new industry.
As far as direct job creation, the third way is the most obvious but probably not the case at the moment. So I guess we're stuck waiting for goods and services made with AI to get cheaper.
Seriously, carpenters and plumbers and maybe more electricians. All those copy writers, graphic designers and junior coders are going to have to do something else.
I'm joking, but not. I think a lot of fat is going to get trimmed of the bone of most industries. That may include myself which is a worry.
With this much shoddy code out there, I'm expecting a LOT more testers are going to be needed. This is job creation but not the good kind.
Think Tesla Optimus robot grabbing popcorn. Instead of one cashier filling bags of popcorn, you now have a dedicated teleoperator + sweeper to pickup all the popcorn that's spilled. One job turned into two jobs.
It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy.
Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast and say AI will lead to mass unemployment.
How does "ai" make "the economy" more efficient exactly ?
> people get new, better jobs
Which law dictate that these jobs are better ?
I don't see people getting better jobs personally, I see a shit load of people pushed into more and more precarious jobs, with less and less workers rights and job security, with stagnating wages despite rise in productivity, &c.
Yeah, lower IQ people can use AI too...it might even close the gap to the high IQ people depending on their talents, what they learn, what they apply it to, and so on.
> high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again
"Meaningful" is a bit weasely here. If a skilled factory worker had their job offshored in the past and wound up employed at Walmart after, they did not find "meaningful" work
> it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy.
Still doesn’t explain how new jobs are created. Efficient economy doesn’t mean more jobs. You could displace a thousand workers and create a single new better job, but that means nothing.
Probably if the capital owners who have automated away the need for intellectual labor want to take advantage of their increased income and the increasingly cheap/desperate labor, they might hire back some of the fired white-collar AI-replaced folks to give them Roman villa treatment (hand-feeding grapes, performing plays and theater at their homes, ever more elaborate massage/grooming/pampering or the more illicit variety).
One team to re-do the work to double check the right answer.
The second team to reconcile the right answer with the AI result.
I'm not even joking ... I've professionally been extremely embarrassed once by an AI result. Now I check it so often that I might as well just do the work I asked it to do.
No doubt, quick questions and rough ideas, LLM is the bomb.
Anything that contains drudgery that nobody wants to do. AI is automating away all the cool creative jobs, leaving only the garbage ones. Once robotics is up there, those garbage jobs will be gone as well. Then the humanity implodes within 2 generations.
I wouldn't worry about it. Within two generations, the remaining humans will be mainly concerned with surviving in a wrecked ecosystem as best they can.
kingstnap|6 months ago
Geoffrey Hinton seems to be in the headlines constantly going "godfather of AI" and giving some random obtuse warning or call for action.
Eric Schmidt also spends a lot of time yapping.
And of course people like Gary Marcus.
Simon Willison also does a lot of writing but at least his blog is actually useful information of actual tests and news.
xnx|6 months ago
I would not include simonw with the other 3 at all. His opinions are informed by use instead of just other thoughts. Simon also releases a lot of utility tools.
Lu2025|6 months ago
nerfellicat|6 months ago
It's pretty wild.
jayd16|6 months ago
It's easier to start the next widget company because building widgets with the technology is cheaper.
It's easier to consume other things because goods are cheaper to make with the tech.
A third option is that the tech enables something all together new, eg television, that starts a new industry.
As far as direct job creation, the third way is the most obvious but probably not the case at the moment. So I guess we're stuck waiting for goods and services made with AI to get cheaper.
gonzo41|6 months ago
I'm joking, but not. I think a lot of fat is going to get trimmed of the bone of most industries. That may include myself which is a worry.
dragontamer|6 months ago
With this much shoddy code out there, I'm expecting a LOT more testers are going to be needed. This is job creation but not the good kind.
Think Tesla Optimus robot grabbing popcorn. Instead of one cashier filling bags of popcorn, you now have a dedicated teleoperator + sweeper to pickup all the popcorn that's spilled. One job turned into two jobs.
guywithahat|6 months ago
Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast and say AI will lead to mass unemployment.
lm28469|6 months ago
Is it ?
> when something makes the economy more efficient
How does "ai" make "the economy" more efficient exactly ?
> people get new, better jobs
Which law dictate that these jobs are better ?
I don't see people getting better jobs personally, I see a shit load of people pushed into more and more precarious jobs, with less and less workers rights and job security, with stagnating wages despite rise in productivity, &c.
kelipso|6 months ago
bluefirebrand|6 months ago
"Meaningful" is a bit weasely here. If a skilled factory worker had their job offshored in the past and wound up employed at Walmart after, they did not find "meaningful" work
It has happened plenty of times
darth_avocado|6 months ago
Still doesn’t explain how new jobs are created. Efficient economy doesn’t mean more jobs. You could displace a thousand workers and create a single new better job, but that means nothing.
LightBug1|6 months ago
ninininino|6 months ago
LightBug1|6 months ago
One team to re-do the work to double check the right answer. The second team to reconcile the right answer with the AI result.
I'm not even joking ... I've professionally been extremely embarrassed once by an AI result. Now I check it so often that I might as well just do the work I asked it to do.
No doubt, quick questions and rough ideas, LLM is the bomb.
Professionally? Nah. Not yet.
storus|6 months ago
throwawayoldie|6 months ago
tropicalfruit|6 months ago
bombcar|6 months ago
Rumudiez|6 months ago
semiinfinitely|6 months ago
pacman1337|6 months ago
esarbe|6 months ago
throwawayoldie|6 months ago