[bglazer]

AlphaGo showed that RL+search+self play works really well if you have an easy to verify reward and millions of iterations. Math partially falls into this category via automated proof checkers like Lean. So, that’s where I would put the highest likelihood of things getting weird really quickly. It’s worth noting that this hasn’t happened yet, and I’m not sure why. It seems like this recipe should already be yielding results in terms of new mathematics, but it isn’t yet.

That said, nearly every other task in the world is not easily verified, including things we really care about. How do you know if an AI is superhuman at designing fusion reactors? The most important step there is building a fusion reactor.

I think a better reference point than AlphaGo is AlphaFold. Deepmind found some really clever algorithmic improvements, but they didn’t know whether they actually worked until the CASP competition. CASP evaluated their model on new Xray crystal structures of proteins. Needless to say getting Xray protein structures is a difficult and complex process. Also, they trained AlphaFold on thousands of existing structures that were accumulated over decades and required millenia of graduate-student-hours hours to find. It’s worth noting that we have very good theories for all the basic physics underlying protein folding but none of the physics based methods work. We had to rely on painstakingly collected data to learn the emergent phenomena that govern folding. I suspect that this will be the case for many other tasks.