[_jab]

I'm skeptical of arguments like this. If we look at most impactful technologies since the year 2000, AI is not even in my top 3. Social networking, mobile computing, and cloud computing have all done more to alter society and daily life than has AI.

And yes, I recognize that AI has already created profound change, in that every software engineer now depends heavily on copilots, in that education faces a major integrity challenge, and in that search has been completely changed. I just don't think those changes are on the same level as the normalization of cutting-edge computers in everyone's pockets, as our personal relationships becoming increasingly online, nor as the enablement for startups to scale without having to maintain physical compute infrastructure.

To me, the treating of AI as "different" is still unsubstantiated. Could we get there? Absolutely. We just haven't yet. But some people start to talk about it almost in a way that's reminiscent of Pascal's Wager, as if the slight chance of a godly reward from producing AI means it is rational to devote our all to it. But I'm still holding my breath.

[c0balt]

> in that every software engineer now depends heavily on copilots

That is maybe a bubble around the internet. Ime most programmers in my environment rarely use and certainly aren't dependent on it. They do also not only do code monkey-esque web programming so maybe this is sampling bias though it should be enough to refute this point.

[Raphael_Amiard]

Came here to say that. It’s important to remember how biased hacker news is in that regard. I’m just out of ten years in the safety critical market, and I can assure you that our clients are still a long way from being able to use those. I myself work in low level/runtime/compilers, and the output from AIs is often too erratic to be useful

[HDThoreaun]

Im on the core sql execution team at a database company and everyone on the team is using AI coding assistants. Certainly not doing any monkey-esque web programming.

[galangalalgol]

Add LED lighting on there. It is easy to forget what a difference that made. The light pollution, but also just how dim houses were. CFL didn't last very long as a thing between incandescent and LED and houses lit with incandescents have a totally different feel.

[mdaniel]

And yet: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/26/car-headlights-too-bright-l...

But, for clarity, I do agree with your sentiment about their use in appropriate situations, I just have an indescribable hatred for driving at night now

[atleastoptimal]

AI has already rendered academic take-home assignments moot. No other tech has had an impact like that, even the internet.

[callc]

A pessimistic/realistic view of post high school education - credentials are proof of able to do a certain amount of hard work, used as an easy filter for companies while hiring.

I expect universities to adapt quickly, lest lose their whole business as degrees will not carry the same meaning to employers.

[ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7]

> AI has already rendered academic take-home assignments moot

Not really, there are plenty of things that LLMs cannot do that a professor could make his students do. It is just a asymmetric attack on the professor's (or whomever is grading) time to do that.

IMO, credentials shouldn't be given to those who test or submit assignments without proctoring (a lot of schools allow this).

[devmor]

What? The internet did that ages ago. We just pretended it didn't because some students didn't know how to use Google.

[Davidzheng]

On current societal impact it might be close to the other three. But do you not think it is different in nature to other technological innovations?

[shayief]

> in that every software engineer now depends heavily on copilots

With many engineers using copilots and since LLMs output the most frequent patterns, it's possible that more and more software is going to look the same, which would further reinforce the same patterns.

For example, emdash thing, requires additional prompts and instructions to override it. Doing anything unusual would require more effort.

[thomasfromcdnjs]

Pretty sure I read Economnics in one lesson because of HN, he makes great arguments about how automation never ruins economies as much as people think. "Chapter 7: The Curse of Machinery"

[mmmore]

LLMs with instruction following have been around for 3 years. Your comment gives me "electricity and gas engines will never replace the horse" vibes.

Everyone agrees AI has not radically transformed the world yet. The question is whether we should prepare for the profound impacts current technology pretty clearly presages, if not within 5 years then certainly within 10 or 25 years.

[srcreigh]

> Could we get there? Absolutely. We just haven't yet.

What else is needed then?

[tymscar]

I don’t know what the answer to the Collatz conjecture is, but I know it’s not “carrot”.

[legucy]

I’m skeptical of arguments like this. If we look at most impactful technologies since the year 1980, the Web is not even in my top 3. Personal computers, spreadsheet software, and desktop publishing have all done more to alter society and daily life than has the Web. And yes, I recognize that the Web has already created profound change, in that every researcher now depends heavily on online databases, in that commerce faces a major disruption challenge, and in that information access has been completely changed. I just don’t think those changes are on the same level as the normalization of powerful computers on everyone’s desk, as our business processes becoming increasingly digitized, nor as the enablement for small businesses to produce professional-quality documents without having to maintain expensive typesetting equipment. To me, the treating of the Web as “different” is still unsubstantiated. Could we get there? Absolutely. We just haven’t yet. But some people start to talk about it almost in a way that’s reminiscent of Pascal’s Wager, as if the slight chance of a godly reward from investing in Web technologies means it is rational to devote our all to it. But I’m still holding my breath.

[m_a_g]

This is not reddit.