[am3101]

Bourbon was definitely on the downswing before this (note that any spirit made in the US will have the same issue with tariffs).

First, as noted, there are generational (and cyclical) shifts in spirits.

Second, bourbon’s “box” is very narrow. There are LOTS of innovative things that scotch manufacturers can and do pursue. Bourbon has to be barreled and bottled at specific proofs and, more importantly, must be majority corn and aged in a new oak barrel. There’s only so much differentiation you can have between distilleries, which is why some of the more innovative distilleries like High West often do “American whiskey” instead of bourbon.

Third, the bourbon boom in particular was so fast (and on the heels of a broken industry) that there wasn’t much quality aged supply. Partially because it’s cheaper and partially because size you can’t spend four years aging bourbon with no positive cash flow, most “craft” distilleries source from MGP (white label producer in Indiana), and I think you end up in this consumer trap where consumers know they want something nicer than bottom-shelf Jim Beam, but don’t know how to differentiate a distillery that does in-house product vs a distillery that sources. (Also, some distilleries that do in house are quite bad.) The net of it is consumers who want “nice” bourbon eventually conclude that “all bourbon tastes the same” which if you only buy from MGP sourced distilleries is sort of true. (Ironically some of the large brands like Wild Turkey are actually the really great brands in the space.)