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1945 | 6 months ago

The author isn't exactly a thought leader in the space, or really any space for that matter. Opinion worth nothing.

discuss

I've never met a "thought leader" whose opinion was worth anything.

aydyn|6 months ago

"Thought leader" isn't an actual title (or at least it shouldn't be). In my mind, its simply someone who you recognize as having the expertise worth paying attention to.

xracy|6 months ago

Never quite realized how much I disliked the term "Thought Leader" until I read it 5x in the comments responses of this thread.

1945|6 months ago

I should have said domain expert instead. These two casually chosen words really riled them up

roywiggins|6 months ago

Have bubbles ever been successfully called by thought leaders?

alephnerd|6 months ago

If by "thought leader" you mean domain experts making criticism then yes.

For example, Nouriel Roubini calling out the risks of the 2008 Recession before it happened, Michael Pettis calling out the risks of a real estate balance sheet crisis in China before Evergrande happened, and Arvind Subramanian calling out the risks of a a shadow bank crisis in India before the ILFS collapse in 2018.

For AI/ML, I'd tend to trust Emily Bender, given her background in NLP which itself was what became LLMs originated from.

hasperdi|6 months ago

Yes. Say there are 10000 thought leaders with different thinkings. There's a chance that at least one is right.

exasperaited|6 months ago

But people being just a "thought leader in the space" is exactly the reason there's a bubble.

Bubbles are a lot easier to visualise from the outside.

yahoozoo|6 months ago

Is Sam Altman a thought leader?

Henchman21|6 months ago

IMO “thought leaders” only set the agenda of groupthink. So… yes?

JeremyNT|6 months ago

It's just another anecdote, but the "vibes" feel like they're shifting.

The employment numbers, the inflation numbers, government austerity, the gpt-5 disappointment... the valuations are all more like meme stocks and not based on reality.

If enough articles about the crash start appearing, and enough people believe the crash is coming, the congratulations: the crash will occur.