[binoct]

So this is a really good example of small sample size intuition being a big challenge. Fatalities happen on the order of billion miles driven - obviously people don’t come to that. Take a few thousand miles of positive experience sets a statistical floor on accident rates, but that is orders of magnitude away from how safe (or unsafe, depending on how you look at it) human drivers are on average. FSD and other, less capable L2 systems are amazing at paying attention in situations where humans fail, but also tend to have major limitations in places humans will largely do great most of the time. Your experience, as positive as it has been, doesn’t support the assertion that fatalities would decrease.

[sneak]

I see median human drivers all of the time, and I see median FSD all of the time. I don’t need to drive a billion miles to have a valid opinion that one is better than the other.

I’m sure things are very different out around the edges, as you note, but the majority of the time humans in cars kill people it isn’t because they were in an edge case - quite the opposite. They were just driving home from the bar like they do every night.