[dmboyd]

I wonder if 2) is a result of published bias for positive results in the training set. An “I don’t know” response is probably ranked unsatisfactory by human feedback and most published scientific literature are biased towards positive results and factual explanations.

[InitialLastName]

In my experience, the willingness to say "I don't know" instead of confabulate is also down-rated as a human attribute, so it's not surprising that even an AGI trained on the "best" of humanity would avoid it.