[anp]

FWIW this closely matches my experience. I’m pretty late to the AI hype train but my opinion changed specifically because of using combinations of models & tools that released right before the cut off date for the data here. My impression from friends is that it’s taken even longer for many companies to decide they’re OK with these tools being used at all, so I would expect a lot of hysteresis on outputs from that kind of adoption.

That said I’ve had similar misgivings about the METR study and I’m eager for there to be more aggregate study of the productivity outcomes.