[smeeth]

Another day, another person not getting discounted cash flow.

Models trained in 2025 don’t ship until 2026/7. That means the $3bn in 2025 training costs show up as expense now, while the revenue comes later. Treating that as a straight loss is just confused.

OAI’s projected $5bn 2025 loss is mostly training spend. If you don’t separate that out with future revenues, you’re misreading the business.

And yes, inference gross margins are positive. No idea why the author pretends they aren’t.