[PhantomHour]

> I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession

Not a chance. Were it just the tariffs, the recession would be quite small. The tariffs might even be cancelled if the SCOTUS remembers to do it's job.

But it's not just the tariffs.

The US economy is currently being kept afloat by AI R&D and infrastructure spending. It's stock market kept alive by 7 companies who are all neck deep in AI hype.

This not only disguises the malaise in the rest of the US economy, it's a bubble. Everyone knows it. Nvidia's the only one making any money and even they are now relying on vendor financing and other such red flags. Even one who believes that the technology of AI is here to stay, has to face the reality that it's not a golden goose of infinite dollar bills.

We're looking at something that's going to be at least as bad as the Dotcom crash. 'At least' because while the bubble is of only comparable size, other conditions are much worse.

Trump is trying to seize the fed. Big Tech is tearing the copper wiring out of it's own walls to keep AI going a little longer, and their plans for cutting costs is to dramatically increase H1Bs and outsourcing. (One wonders if there might be a non-economic reason behind this, given it's one specific country they're seeking to hire from >.>)

And underneath it all: A timebomb. Much, much, much more of consumer spending in 2025 is from pensioners than it was in 2000. When the stock market eats a 50% loss and stay there for a decade, those pensions will be cut dramatically. This drives down consumer spending, in turn driving down the stock market, a vicious cycle.