[harryf]

Better to talk about the Gartner Hype cycle and it's stages compare it to technologies that clearly followed that cycle such as;

- Virtual Reality: big hype in the early 90s (arcades, movies like Lawnmower Man) through to use cases today like surgical training, aviation training

- Mobile video calls: hyped in early 2000's with 3G and pre-iPhone devices. Actually took off with 4G and 5G plus iOS and Android phones

- 3D printing: back in 2013 we were expecting "a 3D printer in every home" ... today valuable in industrial prototyping

Looking back at 2025 we'll be saying "Remember when they said everyone would lose their jobs to AI..."

[catigula]

That's a nice story but without any advancements proper leverage of currently existing AI models can indeed remove many, many jobs from the labor pool, probably double digit percentage-wise.

The idea that these tools won't at all improve from where they are now isn't a widely held position.

[UncleOxidant]

Pareto principal. We've seen the 80% but that last 20% is going to be really tough (and expensive). GPT5 illustrates this - it wasn't really better than GPT4o and in some ways worse.

[uncircle]

All technologies go through the hype cycle, but the magnitude of the cycle and its effects on the economy are very different.

Neither VR, mobile video calls or 3D printing were expected to radically change the entire work economy, if not bring about actual human-like intelligence. None of those three technologies were in the hands of a handful of ultra-valuable companies, that in turn pretty much all depend on a single American manufacturer of hardware. None were threatening to destroy the Internet as we know it, or the concept of truth and credibility our modern world rely upon.

VR going nowhere was a wet fart, AI going nowhere is gonna, in my opinion and hope, crash the entire tech economy that's been injecting high doses of the hopium in the long period of post-COVID stagnation and inflation.

[Atlas667]

> Looking back at 2025 we'll be saying "Remember when they said everyone would lose their jobs to AI..."

Even if... one would think that a capitalist economy would do great with more and capable workers. One would think that more stuff would get done. Right?

I think there is a good chance that it will, in fact, shift millions towards unemployment. I am pro technology, yet technology in the hands of profit seekers will only be used to seek profits.

It happened during the agricultural revolution and during the industrial revolution. Millions of people were made unemployed by more efficient technology. Millions had to flee the country sides to then be thrown out of factories a few decades later, leading to slums and mass poverty. So many that the government had to enact more and more welfare programs like public schools, and food programs.

Capitalism is the only economic system that cannot handle more workers. For-profit production is not compatible with mass employment.

Almost like capitalism shoots itself in the foot and then forgets about it.

[another_twist]

I dont know if we can draw parallels to something that happened hundred years ago. Since then there has been increases automation yet the unemployment rate esp in the US hasnt budged beyond 4% barring the depression years. I think access to education and opportunities to upskill are crucial for maintaining a sustainable economy. Its helps people just move on esp if they are of working age. With the industrial revolution, technology was hard to get your hands on. You couldnt just buy a cotton mill and start your own business. Not so with AI, for 20 dollars a month you can get access to an employee that mever gets tired. I think if anything, AI might lead to increased competition among businesses and force monopolies to wake from their slumber.

[tim333]

>For-profit production is not compatible with mass employment.

I think reality differs. Most countries have for profit production and most have mass employment. Maybe 95% employed and 5% unemployed but it generally muddles along. The masses always seem to vote for it unless they have communism imposed at gunpoint with walls to prevent them escaping.

[philipallstar]

Capitalism has lifted a billion+ people out of poverty by efficiently allocating capital instead of mindlessly "employing" people.