One thing is that a lot of economic activity was front-loaded to the first few quarters as businesses scrambled to get inventory on board ahead of tariffs; now we're seeing companies having burned through inventory, so inflationary impacts are going to start working their way through the supply chain now in earnest, and we're going to see a concomitant slowdown in economic activity as that acts as a persistent drag across multiple sectors. In practice you're looking at something equivalent to a 3-4% federal sales tax on all purchases, but keep an eye on where it falls on relatively inelastic goods, which will have an outsize effect on consumer finances.
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