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eagerpace | 5 months ago

This was a mind shift for me, inflation applies to stock prices too. The US cannot cut spending enough to prevent the debt death spiral. Inflation and growth are the only options. Everyone wants growth but it's hard to get, nobody wants inflation, but it's easy to get. Inflation is here to stay.

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Dylan16807|5 months ago

> Inflation is here to stay.

Well sure it is, we aim for some inflation on purpose.

If you mean inflation above 2% is here to stay, maybe, but 2% was an arbitrary target anyway. It doesn't make much difference whether it's around 2% or hovering between 2% and 3%.

If you think it's going to go much higher I'd like to hear why.

tobias3|5 months ago

This right here. If you don't think they will actually hit the 2% target it means inflation became unanchored.

It is mainly about credibility.

If they want 3% instead of 2%, they should hit the 2% target first, keep it there for a few years, then increase to 3%.

eagerpace|5 months ago

It has to go higher. It’s the only way out of the debt issue. Economic growth isn’t enough given the continued spending. If the inflation can happen alongside growth it is easier to sell.

JumpCrisscross|5 months ago

> US cannot cut spending enough to prevent the debt death spiral. Inflation and growth are the only options

Inflation, growth and defaults.

Trump has already de facto seized, and the Republicans in the Congress ceded, the power of the purse. Do you really think impounding interest payments is beyond the pale of possibility?

eagerpace|5 months ago

It's not a partisan thing. Congress is too dysfunctional. Both sides oppose a balanced budget.

quickthrowman|5 months ago

> Do you really think impounding interest payments is beyond the pale of possibility?

I truly hope so, otherwise the only buyers for US Treasuries will be Social Security.

Defaulting on sovereign US debt would be something that would make me rapidly look for an exit from the United States.

xnx|5 months ago

> Do you really think impounding interest payments is beyond the pale of possibility?

It will happen in phases: 30 year bonds become 100 year bonds, foreign countries get payments, delayed, etc.