[bkorte]

I think the vast majority of what Apple does would be considered "safe".

But to me, where you see safe I see refined. They focussed on building them better. They focussed on putting in the different radios, better/larger screen, while keeping consistent battery life. While making it smaller.

Just because there's no NFC (of arguable real-world usefulness, and I'm sure that's not what you're talking about anyways) doesn't mean its not innovative.

Apple doesn't really innovate on hardware features very often. They put capacitive touch in the mainstream with the original iPhone. They pushed HiDPI displays into mainstream with the iPhone 4. They redefined the tablet computer form-factor with the iPad.

Why change a great thing?

[jpxxx]

We're arguing the same thing. :) I'm not critical of their choices. They did their best work making the best product for the most people with the most money.

Unsafe was cashing in 100% of their market credibility to drop an uncompetitive keyboard-less featurephone into the 2007 market. Unsafe was Retina. Unsafe was the iPhone 4 design. Unsafe was Siri. Unsafe was the sealed filesystem. Unsafe was unsubsidized sales.

Of all of their dozens of unsafe decisions, I think only two burnt them: unsubsidized sales and Antennagate. And they course corrected on both of them as soon as feasible.

But here we are 6 product cycles later and they've successfully gotten to where they wanted to be: The Unquestioned Best. It's the safe choice. It's the sure thing. It's the one everything else is compared to. It's the standard bearer.

And seriously? I can't think of what the next Unsafe decision is. Is it in payments? Is it in docking? Is it in Zigbee/NFC? Is it in broad identity management? Developing markets?

Apple is in a position where they don't -have- to make Unsafe decisions anymore, and that roaring sound you hear is tens of billions of dollars rushing their way. They survived the gauntlet. Now it's time for them to feast.

Pardon my metaphor soup.

[jopt]

Great insight; nice to see something that's not just Gruber-bashing.

I think we can expect Apple to do unsafe things in the future, but outside the realm of iPhone. The iPod (classic) was in a fairly safe place when Apple started disrupting with iPhone. The iPhone and iPad are coupled tighter than the iPod and the iPhone, but there's a hint of the same thing here; the iPhone is refined, and the newer iPad disrupts.

I think iPad, not iPhone, is where we should look for unsafe. Or perhaps something else altogether.

[cageface]

Microsoft thought so too ten years ago. Success can be a dangerous thing.