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geoduck14 | 5 months ago

>It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were.

Your comparison to smart phones is interesting. Smart phones are definitely transformative. There was a lot of hype, but still transformative.

Do you believe that LLMs and AI is also going to be transformative?

discuss

order

brookst|5 months ago

People keep rediscovering the trough of disillusionment and mistaking it for a dead end.

pixelesque|5 months ago

Likewise with the dot com bubble and the web - it was a bubble and it was overhyped, but it was still transformative if you look back 20 years as to how things are different in terms of media, and commerce.

Cthulhu_|5 months ago

Both smartphones (and tablets, and smart watches) and the internet went through the hype cycle [0], and the sentiments I've been reading lately indicate AI is in the "trough of disillusionment" right now. That said, I don't believe AI will ever reach the heights (i.e. the measurable ones, how much it penetrates our lives, how much money goes into it) as either smartphones or the internet had. Probably higher than VR / AR, but nowhere near the other ones.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

redwood|5 months ago

I think the transformation will primarily be in search personally. As in Google search type experiences.

What that means is the ad model of the internet will come apart.

And what that means is that the LLMs will need to charge for answer optimization to plug the ads hole.

And so where this is going is basically a whole cottage industry around that. Around controlling and shaping knowledge in other words.

Yes frightening politically more so than economically. At least from my view.

And if it dumbs us down and erodes critical thinking then maybe it will have negative effects economically and politically long term.

pjc50|5 months ago

Transformative, but not necessarily in a good way: likely to lead to the end of the open internet, along with all sorts of weird social effects from lowering the cost of convincing fakes.

tokai|5 months ago

I don't think it was about smart phones.