Chinese semiconductor dominance is not imminent and US containment has been somewhat effective. I don’t think that will hold on a generational timeline, but it will be hard to overcome.
You don’t think the export controls on Nvidia chips accelerated Chinese investment in ML processors and therefore their independence -> dominance in the space?
The export controls made it difficult for Chinese companies to acquire large numbers of GPUs, which prevented them from expanding business models that rely on buying more GPUs to serve more customers, which means that Chinese companies have much, much lower budgets for GPU procurement than their American counterparts. https://chinai.substack.com/p/chinai-323-the-ai-deflation-of...
So a new homegrown chip would have to capture a very large share of this relatively small market to make significant volume. That makes it rather risky for profit-driven investors.
Politically directed investment probably increased, but in the end the private sector also needs to be on board.
Building SOTA semiconductors is more art than science. All the best artists are in Taiwan.
You don't just buy (or copy) and ASML litho and turn it on. Just like you don't buy a horsehair brush and start painting Picassos. It's even more difficult than that because there are something like ~1000 sub processes and each one needs a world renowned artist in that specific art to get it done.
Its the reason why even Samsung can't match TSMC despite having the same tools and capital.
> So will the military hopes of ever protecting Taiwan.
I don't think there are too many military analysts who would claim that the USA could "protect" Taiwan if China was really determined. The USA still retains the ability to significantly increase the cost, both militarily and economically, of an invasion, and relies on this - successfully, to date - as a deterrent.
I think most people recognize however, even in Taiwan, that in terms of pure practical facts on the ground, not even the world-beating US military can overcome geography. Taiwan is 100 miles off China's cost, Guam is 2800 miles away. It is difficult for me to imagine anything, barring some incredible technological advantage that the USA shows no sign of possessing, that could outweigh such a tremendous home-turf advantage.
It is very hard to come up with a realistic, or even semi realistic, scenario in which China does not end up with Taiwan if it really wanted it.
That's a very pessimistic take, or optimistic I guess, depending on perspective.
Looking at the Chinese semiconductor development trajectory, and considering that TSMC won't be sitting on their hands, "within a decade" seems really unlikely.
I was under the impression, for years, that the US had the appropriate government, scientists and engineering in place to protect the castle. However given what I've seen in the last few years - I agree that it seems inevitable China will surpass the US in the next decade and will hold both cards and a grudge.
It's amazing how China has doubled down into STEM and green energy while the US has done exactly the opposite. The CHIPS Act propped up a company further driven into the ground by Pat Gelsinger. The last few administrations have had no focus on driving innovation and technology - only propping up the Tech Bro market making money off of attention and ads. Maybe, just maybe, the US should stop electing geriatric and short term gains ignorance?
The US needs to dig its head out of its ass if it wants to continue to be recognized as the global power it once was.
Taiwan could be protected if they were given practical control of nuclear weapons or similar, i.e. nuclear weapons sharing.
Securing Taiwanese independence is going to be necessary for the EU to ensure that there isn't a US microchip monopoly, and the only way the EU can do this is by the aforementioned means.
brookst|5 months ago
yorwba|5 months ago
So a new homegrown chip would have to capture a very large share of this relatively small market to make significant volume. That makes it rather risky for profit-driven investors.
Politically directed investment probably increased, but in the end the private sector also needs to be on board.
Workaccount2|5 months ago
You don't just buy (or copy) and ASML litho and turn it on. Just like you don't buy a horsehair brush and start painting Picassos. It's even more difficult than that because there are something like ~1000 sub processes and each one needs a world renowned artist in that specific art to get it done.
Its the reason why even Samsung can't match TSMC despite having the same tools and capital.
rapsey|5 months ago
sho|5 months ago
I don't think there are too many military analysts who would claim that the USA could "protect" Taiwan if China was really determined. The USA still retains the ability to significantly increase the cost, both militarily and economically, of an invasion, and relies on this - successfully, to date - as a deterrent.
I think most people recognize however, even in Taiwan, that in terms of pure practical facts on the ground, not even the world-beating US military can overcome geography. Taiwan is 100 miles off China's cost, Guam is 2800 miles away. It is difficult for me to imagine anything, barring some incredible technological advantage that the USA shows no sign of possessing, that could outweigh such a tremendous home-turf advantage.
It is very hard to come up with a realistic, or even semi realistic, scenario in which China does not end up with Taiwan if it really wanted it.
sampullman|5 months ago
Looking at the Chinese semiconductor development trajectory, and considering that TSMC won't be sitting on their hands, "within a decade" seems really unlikely.
windexh8er|5 months ago
It's amazing how China has doubled down into STEM and green energy while the US has done exactly the opposite. The CHIPS Act propped up a company further driven into the ground by Pat Gelsinger. The last few administrations have had no focus on driving innovation and technology - only propping up the Tech Bro market making money off of attention and ads. Maybe, just maybe, the US should stop electing geriatric and short term gains ignorance?
The US needs to dig its head out of its ass if it wants to continue to be recognized as the global power it once was.
impossiblefork|5 months ago
Securing Taiwanese independence is going to be necessary for the EU to ensure that there isn't a US microchip monopoly, and the only way the EU can do this is by the aforementioned means.