[rcrowley]

I computed P(node failure within MTTR) = 0.00007 same as you. I extrapolated this to the outage scenario P(at least two node failures within MTTR) = P(node failure within MTTR)^2 * (1-P(node failure within MTTR)) + P(node failure within MTTR)^3 = 5.09 * 10^-9 which rounds to 0.0000001%.