[throw954387543]

I find that SWE's and tech staff usually think -> if it take my job that means everything else is able to be automated and we no longer need people to automate things. This and other articles show me most professions have more than just the skill component to them unlike SWE. The more I read the more likely I think it will probably only be software and tech as a relatively high paid job (there are industries at lower pay that are disrupted too) that will be disrupted significantly by AI in the short/medium term. Its main moat as a job was skill difficulty which AI can overcome.

This article shows its more likely tech/software is probably the first major job to be disrupted significantly before other industries. There is an assumption from tech workers that you need a tech person to employ the AI to do the automation meaning they are the last to go. I think that assumption is questionable if AI gets good enough. Especially if I can get "spec writers/QA's/BA's/etc" to do the automation of industries once the regulation/liability side is worked out per industry. Hearing and seeing more than just rumors of AI tooling that mirrors whole software developer workflows being trialed in large tech firms now; SWE is the lowest juiciest hanging fruit.

I still assert that the next industry to feel the most pain is the SWE's and tech workers themselves. Skills and expertise in an AI world are no longer moats to your job security and ability to provide for yourself -> regulation, lack of data, physical world interaction, liability, locality. Most professions have some of the above.

Anecdotally in my local social circle as an SWE I'm now seen as the person with the least desirable job from a social status and security perspective, a massive change from 5 years ago. People would rather be a "truck driver" or in this case a "radiologist". I hope I'm wrong of course for my own personal sake.

[random3]

I think you haven’t seen what most white collar jobs entail. Briefly - it’s stuff software has been automating Incompletely, somewhat badly for the past 70 years. If you automate x% of software developers it means you already automated at least the same percent of every white collar job out there. Exceptions are regulated sectors - like healthcare.

This said, interpreting images is not an image problem - it’s a human body reasoning problem. If you can’t have AI that replaces any engineer, I’d assume replacing a doctor will be just as unlikely. The healthcare bar is much higher - works in 80% of the coding scenarios may be good enough for software, it’s not good for life critical decisions.

So likely we’re not seeing any impact on jobs from AI in relevant health sectors. Now if you your friends think that the rest of paper pushing won’t be affected, or that their jobs entail some unique people skills, they’re in for a big surprise.

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I've been in the industry long enough to see the jobs you talk about in the office. Many don't require a "profession" and yes these are up for automation unless there is some other moat (e.g. locality or the personal touch for sales staff for example). The "Software Engineer" is grouped now with such people - general process office workers once their differentiating factor (i.e. skill difficulty) is trivialized by AI. The fact that it is paid more than those general jobs just makes it more enticing as a target.

Most engineers, even accountants, any profession with a title really that required some study usually have the moat of liability and/or locality. SWE's don't really have this in general - a unique job that while requiring a degree for many high tech orgs, will be the first to go. As you said 80% is enough for many domains here. Any other engineering profession (e.g. electrical, civil) has other moats that mean they won't be as disrupted.

Most of the people I talk to w.r.t this issue studied in general professions or trades, physical jobs. i.e. SWE is especially affected especially at the higher end where study was required because for the same "effort" of a CS/Engineering degree you could of been in any other profession where there was more protection from AI (bootcamps aside). AI may have the CS/SWE university pathway be redundant - ironic if most college/uni jobs are still safe except for the industry that birthed the AI in the first place.