[siegecraft]

It's frustrating that their entire analysis is based on the claim that cheating occurs in maybe 1 out of 10,000 games; they got this from a quote in an interview with the deputy president of the World Chess Federation after he had been beaten in a charity match by someone who admitted cheating. To their credit they also ran the analysis assuming cheating is 1/500 and the odds rose to 7%. I suppose it makes sense that they are merely rebutting the accusations based on the same methodology but it's still frustrating.

[cortesoft]

Part of Bayesian analysis is choosing your prior probabilities. Luckily, with enough data the priors become less and less important, but you do need to choose them.