It’s a matter of correctness and utility. You can improve your odds of correctness (and thus usefulness) by adjusting the scope of your projection.
This applies not only to predicting the future. Consider measuring something: you carefully choose your level of precision for practical reasons. Consider goal setting: you leave abundant room for variation because your goal is not expressed in hyper narrow terms, but you don’t leave it so loose that you don’t know what steps to take.
When expressed in sufficiently narrow terms, no one will ever predict anything. When expressed in sufficiently broad terms, everyone can predict everything. So the point is to modulate the scope until attaining utility.
arthurofbabylon|5 months ago
This applies not only to predicting the future. Consider measuring something: you carefully choose your level of precision for practical reasons. Consider goal setting: you leave abundant room for variation because your goal is not expressed in hyper narrow terms, but you don’t leave it so loose that you don’t know what steps to take.
When expressed in sufficiently narrow terms, no one will ever predict anything. When expressed in sufficiently broad terms, everyone can predict everything. So the point is to modulate the scope until attaining utility.