[Ravus]

Exponential curves happen when a quantity's growth rate is a linear function of its own value. In practice they're all going to be logistic, but you can ignore that as long as you're far away from the cap of whatever factor limits growth.

So what are the things that could cause "AI growth" (for some suitable definition of it) to be correlated with AI? The plausible ones I see are: - growing AI capabilities spur additional AI capex - AI could be used to develop better AIs

The first one rings true, but is most definitely hitting the limit since US capex into the sector definitely cannot grow 100-fold (and probably cannot grow 4-fold either).

The second one is, to my knowledge, not really a thing.

So unless AI can start improving itself or there is a self-feeding mechanism that I have missed, we're near the logistic fun phase.