[HPMOR]

There is no bubble. Your priors are not serving you well here.

[Forgeties79]

If I had to shoot from the hip and guess: 30% of the current crop of AI startups are going to make it at best. Frankly that feels insanely generous but I’ll give them more credit than I think they deserve re: ideas and actual staying power.

Many will crash in rapid succession. There isn’t enough room for all these same-y companies.

[chrisweekly]

I thought a 10% success rate was the baseline for startups -- which would make your 30% estimate generous indeed.

[anukin]

Why do you say that there is no bubble? Do you feel the investment that went in to this justifies the results and returns?

[marcellus23]

The AI bubble is a thing but so was the dot com bubble. It doesn't mean the technology is useless.

[johnnyanmac]

Historically speaking, people saying "history won't repeat this time, it's different" have a pretty bad track record. Do we remember what the definition of "insanity" is?

[baconbrand]

This seems different to me than other hype bubbles because “the human intelligence/magical worker replacement machine isn’t in that guy’s box or the other guy’s box or even the last version of my box but it surely is in this box now that I have here for you for a price...” is just about infinitely repackageble and resellable to an infinite (?) contingent of old gullible men with access to functionally infinite money. Not sure if that’s lack of imagination or education on my part or what.

[DrewADesign]

“The .com economy is a new business paradigm: the rules have changed.”

- pioneers in wrongness 25 years ago. Oft copied, but never vindicated.