[top256]

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I think there's a misunderstanding (maybe my text wasn't clear. If so please point out where so I can fix it).

We actually agree: even if the probability of successful coordination is only 10%, accepting inevitability makes it 0%. That difference matters enormously given the stakes. My argument isn't "coordination is definitely possible" but rather "believing it's impossible guarantees failure." When tech leaders say "AGI is inevitable," they're not describing reality; they're shaping it by discouraging attempts to coordinate. Human cloning hasn't happened because we maintain active resistance despite technical feasibility.

You're asking for credible paths with P > 0. I'm saying: knowing P with certainty is impossible, so accepting P = 1 narratives makes alternative paths invisible. The path emerges through trial and error, not before it.

[naasking]

> When tech leaders say "AGI is inevitable," they're not describing reality; they're shaping it by discouraging attempts to coordinate.

No, they're describing reality. As I posted in another comment, progress in technology drops capital requirements for innovation. Even if there's global coordination to stop AGI development right now, progress in tech means that in 30 years someone in their basement could do what OpenAI is doing right now but with commodity hardware. Preventing this would require an oppressive regime controlling basic information technology and knowledge to an extent that isn't palatable to anyone.

[top256]

"They're describing reality" - No, they're making predictions about the future. If AGI requires 30 years of compute improvements as you say, then it's not reality, it's a forecast contingent on those 30 years of development continuing unimpeded.

As for "oppressive regime", we already do this for nuclear and biotech, and most people find it quite palatable! Nuclear materials are tightly controlled globally. Cloning humans is illegal almost everywhere. We've had the knowledge for both for decades, yet basement nukes and basement human clones aren't happening.

I'm not saying we should make it illegal, I'm just saying there are more gray areas than what's generally accounted for.

[tsimionescu]

If this were so, I've yet to see any explanation that accounts for why human cloning has been so successfully prevented, even though it's relatively inexpensive technology, to the point that we have (had?) pet cloning companies selling it as a consumer service.