From what little I know about the late history of the Roman Empire, the stirrup thing had nothing to do with it. In late antiquity, Roman soldiers and "barbarian" soldiers were not very different.
Here's an introduction to the scholarly debate about that:
Also, ancient concrete recipes had little to do with it either. Modern construction usually uses steel rebar, which corrodes, because it costs less and lasts long enough. (Most buildings get torn down because they're functionally obsolete.) People who really care about longevity could use stainless steel rebar if they're willing to pay for it. More about that:
Rebar is essential for concrete beams. Something has to provide tensile strength. Roman concrete was usually used in pure compression.
Epoxy-coated rebar turned out to be a dud idea. One scratch in the epoxy, or a cut end, or a weld, lets water in. It's now banned in Quebec and being looked at elsewhere.
The Oregon Department of Transportation has been using stainless steel rebar for bridges that cross salt water. Seems to be working out well. Steel cost is 5x-6x ordinary rebar, but the long life is worth it.
There's now stainless steel plated rebar, which is a tougher coating than epoxy. Not clear how that will work out.
> There is no moat in any profession outside of entrenched wealth or guns at the moment
That's just not true at all.
Plumbers and electricians and carpenters are not going anywhere. A residential plumber will not have their job automated this or next decade, at best they'll have some fancier tools to play with.
No one expected natural language to be solved in 2020. At the time the smart money was on 20 to 80 years. Many people are still acting like it's not.
Things happen not at all and then all at once.
We have the cheap humanoid platforms coming out of China and they cost six months minimum wage salary in the developed world. Once a model is developed that can use those platforms to match humans for simple tasks we will see the hollowing out of all unskilled physical labor overnight.
Not quickly at least, but technology can gradually reduce the labor content of a plumbing job thanks to things like solderlerss fittings, plastic tubing etc. For carpenters, prefab assemblies made in automated factories, etc.
The biggest risk they face is perhaps competition from unskilled workers who can do trades by just wearing Meta AR glasses and following instructions from an AI.
Of course you’d still need training on how to work with your hands but it would cut down on the need for years of experience and planning.
Power systems have a long way to go in terms of integration with data. One can envisage an inherently safe system whereby a data signal is superimposed on the wire (related to data-over-power) and every power source continually interrogates its loads and conditions on the wire are being continually monitored. Any unsafe situation will result in a shutdown of supply.
I'm describing a system that goes well beyond existing breakers and earth leakage: one that is able to fully map the connections between components, know the topology of the system and compare actual and expected behaviour. The idea is that any dummy could do electrical wiring, as the system itself would make it impossible to create an unsafe situation.
Cost would be higher to start with, but with economies of scale reducing the difference, my guess is that the higher cost of components could be offset by lower installation cost and the increased safety.
What you are talking about is info overload and break down of "shared stories" as content explodes faster than there are people or time to consume it all. In Economics they will tell you what happens when Supply drastically overshoots Demand. But economics is too young and immature a field to tell you how to find meaning and how "to fit or be useful".
For that you need the Philosophy or Religion.
So here is a useful lecture from an actual Philosopher on Detachment and Flourishing cause "there is no obligation to fit or be useful or understand everything" - https://oyc.yale.edu/philosophy/phil-181/lecture-8
If you are the type who feels the need to fit - go through the previous lecture on Attachment and Flourishing.
You write like David Foster Wallace, and I mean that as a compliment.
Have you read The City & the City? BBC Two also did a miniseries version, which I thought would be unfilmable and even unwatchable, but somehow it works, likely due to China Miéville himself serving as a consultant on the production.
For those who aren’t familiar with the work, I advise you to avoid spoilers, which are present in the reference links below.
skybrian|5 months ago
Here's an introduction to the scholarly debate about that:
https://acoup.blog/2022/01/14/collections-rome-decline-and-f...
Also, ancient concrete recipes had little to do with it either. Modern construction usually uses steel rebar, which corrodes, because it costs less and lasts long enough. (Most buildings get torn down because they're functionally obsolete.) People who really care about longevity could use stainless steel rebar if they're willing to pay for it. More about that:
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/roman-vs-modern-concr...
Animats|5 months ago
Epoxy-coated rebar turned out to be a dud idea. One scratch in the epoxy, or a cut end, or a weld, lets water in. It's now banned in Quebec and being looked at elsewhere.
The Oregon Department of Transportation has been using stainless steel rebar for bridges that cross salt water. Seems to be working out well. Steel cost is 5x-6x ordinary rebar, but the long life is worth it.
There's now stainless steel plated rebar, which is a tougher coating than epoxy. Not clear how that will work out.
margalabargala|5 months ago
That's just not true at all.
Plumbers and electricians and carpenters are not going anywhere. A residential plumber will not have their job automated this or next decade, at best they'll have some fancier tools to play with.
noosphr|5 months ago
Things happen not at all and then all at once.
We have the cheap humanoid platforms coming out of China and they cost six months minimum wage salary in the developed world. Once a model is developed that can use those platforms to match humans for simple tasks we will see the hollowing out of all unskilled physical labor overnight.
analog31|5 months ago
chis|5 months ago
Of course you’d still need training on how to work with your hands but it would cut down on the need for years of experience and planning.
phoenixhaber|5 months ago
[deleted]
femto|5 months ago
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
Power systems have a long way to go in terms of integration with data. One can envisage an inherently safe system whereby a data signal is superimposed on the wire (related to data-over-power) and every power source continually interrogates its loads and conditions on the wire are being continually monitored. Any unsafe situation will result in a shutdown of supply.
I'm describing a system that goes well beyond existing breakers and earth leakage: one that is able to fully map the connections between components, know the topology of the system and compare actual and expected behaviour. The idea is that any dummy could do electrical wiring, as the system itself would make it impossible to create an unsafe situation.
Cost would be higher to start with, but with economies of scale reducing the difference, my guess is that the higher cost of components could be offset by lower installation cost and the increased safety.
joules77|5 months ago
For that you need the Philosophy or Religion.
So here is a useful lecture from an actual Philosopher on Detachment and Flourishing cause "there is no obligation to fit or be useful or understand everything" - https://oyc.yale.edu/philosophy/phil-181/lecture-8
If you are the type who feels the need to fit - go through the previous lecture on Attachment and Flourishing.
aspenmayer|5 months ago
You write like David Foster Wallace, and I mean that as a compliment.
Have you read The City & the City? BBC Two also did a miniseries version, which I thought would be unfilmable and even unwatchable, but somehow it works, likely due to China Miéville himself serving as a consultant on the production.
For those who aren’t familiar with the work, I advise you to avoid spoilers, which are present in the reference links below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_City_%26_the_City
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_City_and_the_City_(TV_se...
idiotsecant|5 months ago
aorloff|5 months ago
There's cool shit being written now if you know where to look
unknown|5 months ago
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