[Seb-C]

Except that the bubble's money is not being invested into cutting-edge ML research, but only into LLMs. And it has been obvious from the start to anyone half-competent about the topic that LLMs are not the path to AGI (if such a thing ever happens anyway).

[jacknews]

I don't think it's that obvious, in fact the 'bitter lesson' teaches us that simple scale leads to qualitative, not just quantitative improvement.

It does look like this is now topping out, but it's still not sure.

It seems to me a couple of simple innovations, like the transformer, could quite possibly lead to AGI, and the infrastructure would 'light up' like all that overinvested dark fiber in the 90s.