[Boogie_Man]

This might be the wrong place to ask these questions, but this comment caused me to think about the situation. Russia and/or Putin has been sold to me as "crazy" since the 90s. I don't really believe that, and presume it's because it's an explanation for their behavior which doesn't require America to consider how seriously we've been dicking over Russia. This is not to say Russia wouldn't dick us if they could (they most certainly would).

The Ukrainian war has been presented to me as a mad man trying to take over the world a la Hitler. I think it's more complicated and concerns about NATO expansion, the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, and Russia controlling warm water naval access make sense as motivations for the war, even though they are also be tools of propaganda. It seems clear that Russia believed they had the opportunity to establish themselves as a great power once again alongside China and the US in the "new multipolar world" they harp about.

My question is this: In light of this information, why has the Ukrainian conflict become seemingly (based on resources allocated and increasingly provocative drone incursions into NATO territories) existential for Russia? Are the us sanctions crippling long term without Ukrankan resources? Why are they willing to sacrifice so much if they already have Crimea free and clear?

[einarfd]

The current Russian regime believes in sphere of influence, and they view Ukraine, the baltics, at least some parts eastern europe, and probably more as a natural part of their sphere of influence.

This crashes with the western view where countries and populations have a right to self determination. Some of the countries that Russia want to fall under their sphere are also members of the EU, which make this even more problematic. Seen from Moscow, EU and western countries have encroached on their turf and this is a problem for them. Seen from the western side, this is wrong, and if Russia is such a bad neighbor that its neighbor join defensive alliances to get out from under their thumb, that is their own fault, and the way the world is supposed to work.

Russia also has a geographic vulnerability where there is no geographic chokepoints from at least Poland and straight to Moscow, which historically has given Russia problems.

Give this, there is actually a rational for what Russia is doing, personally I think it is a bad rational, but there is logic in the madness, even if from my perspective, it is based on a deeply wrong world view.

[jpster]

> This crashes with the western view where countries and populations have a right to self determination.

It’s really time to retire this type of statement. For example, are you aware the CIA or US government has officially acknowledged its involvement, or declassified documents pertaining to coups, overthrows, and assassinations in Iran, the Congo, South Vietnam, Guatemala, Brazil, Chile, Afghanistan?

Maybe this enlightened point of view is promoted by Western academics and (some) think tank types. But that is not how Western governments have been acting for at least the past 75 years.

[LexiMax]

There's actually conspiracy theories that are at the very least adjacent to this world view.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colour_revolution

It's the idea that fraudulent elections in former Soviet states were not merely the result of fed-up populations, but were actually western backed conspiracies with the aim of eroding the Russian sphere of influence.

[pmontra]

Because they thought they could take Ukraine in one week, so why not? And when they realized the mistake it's impossible to back down without losing face and life by the hand on the next leadership. So yes, it's existential, but not for Russia the country. Frankly who cared about Russia and who will care about it again if it goes back into its borders?

[tremon]

Putin is a typical strong man/tribal leader: his support depends on his machismo (it's something Trump tries very hard to emulate with his constant punching down). The problem is that strong men don't lose wars. Putin knows that conceding defeat in Ukraine will bring about his downfall in Russia.

[bluGill]

Putin's goals are not peace, they are restoring the soviet union (his vision of what it should have been, not what it ever was). All call that crazy. That should not be confused with insane: he has a sharp mind, just he has turned it to things that I consider crazy to consider.

Ukraine matters to NATO because they are turning more and more to our classical liberal values of freedom, and that is something NATO wants to encourage in general. (in general - note that Turkey and Hungary are part of NATO that don't want to encourage this, and there are other countries not sure)

We can only guess why Russia/Putin thinks Ukraine is existential to Russia. Our best guess is because they were a historical part of the Soviet Union that they are trying to restore. Putin cannot fulfill his vision without Ukraine. NATO countries like Latvia were also part of the Soviet union and so we expect they are next.