[msandford]

It can't just be better than the average human driver. it has to be some like 10x as good as the average human driver or on par with a race driver.

Everyone thinks they're above average, even people who know statistics! So if it's merely 20% better than the average driver a huge number of people will conclude "I am above average so I'll do a better job"

Will some of them be wrong? Of course. But tons of them will be right, too.

It can't be statistically significantly better, it has to be statistically overwhelmingly better. Not a part of a standard deviation but several of them.

[sowbug]

A better way to phrase it is it needs to be better than the average Uber driver. People have a less inflated sense of that standard.

[bluGill]

Those stastics need to be figured out. You are on the right track - there are a few really bad drivers (and I'm not sure if race drivers are better on common roads - anyone have data?). We need to work through those issues. I didn't say average though I said better than humans and left the measurements open because I don't know all the issues to account for.

[steveBK123]

Correct The averages include teenage males, elderly, driving while texting, road ragers, people who drive late&tired and DUI enjoyers. Accident rates are extremely fat tailed.

If you aren’t in one of those categories you are immediately dramatically better than average. This is fairly easy to do before even considering being a “good driver” / defensive driver / etc.

So you want a better comparison for most people.