[throwmeaway222]

most of this research is fake you know.

For example this was going around for a long time:

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/debu...

Then this happened in 2025 when there was a crack-down on crime:

https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-...

Also, 1% of the population is responsible for most of the crime

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3969807/

So if you end up jailing people, the crime just goes down.

Also, then if that's true, then cancel all murder prison sentences!

[drdaeman]

I don't understand the argument here. Both can be true, as those two statements don't really conflict:

1. Longer sentences could have no effect on crime rates.

2. Persecuting people for crimes lowers crime rates.

Honestly, to me it reads as "law enforcement is a good idea, prolonged incarceration is questionable".

[throwmeaway222]

I'm too lazy/busy right now to get you effective links (debugging a database migration right now) but Google AI said this:

Reported effects of CECOT on crime

Reduction in crime rates

Since Bukele declared a state of emergency in March 2022 and began mass arrests, El Salvador's crime rates have plummeted.

    Homicide rate decline: The country's homicide rate fell from 103 per 100,000 people in 2015 to just 1.9 per 100,000 in 2024, one of the most drastic reductions in recent history.
    Increased public safety: Many Salvadorans, long subjected to extortion and violence by powerful gangs, report feeling much safer on the streets. 

A large part of Cecot is the idea of "permanent prison". I would say your entire argument is completely debunked.