[timmytokyo]

When building their LLMs, the model makers consumed the entire internet. This allowed the models to improve exponentially fast. But there's no more internet to consume. Yes, new data is being generated, but not at anywhere near the rate the models were growing in capability just a year ago. That's why we're seeing diminishing returns when comparing, say, GPT-5 to GPT-4.

The AI marketers, accelerationists and doomers may seem to be different from one another, but the one thing they have in common is their adherence to an extrapolationist fallacy. They've been treating the explosion of LLM capabilities as a promise of future growth and capability, when in fact it's all an illusion. Nothing achieves indefinite exponential growth. Everything hits a wall.