A decade is nothing. If issues will be worked through a decade from now, that means the best time to think about opportunities/coonsequences related to that is now.
Yeah, I see people pooh-poohing the idea of humanoid robots being useful this decade, saying it will take at least 20 years. Oh yeah? Instead of 5 years to render all human labor obsolete, it will take 20? The magnitude of that change is so large that the implications of it happening anytime in our lifetimes are too big to ignore.
The important thing is that this is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like fusion. This is something that will happen.
> The important thing is that this is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like fusion. This is something that will happen.
Meanwhile, in 1950: "the important thing is that fusion is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like the eradication of all disease [there was a time in the 40s and 50s where people, a bit over-excited about then-new antibiotics and chemotherapy, often did believe this]. This is something that _will happen."
> Oh yeah? Instead of 5 years to render all human labor obsolete, it will take 20? The magnitude of that change is so large that the implications of it happening anytime in our lifetimes are too big to ignore.
While true, I would suggest two things:
First, that nobody actually knows how long it will take to make fully-general AI to drive robots, humanoid or otherwise. Look how long self-driving cars have taken, and that they're still geo-fenced.
Second, that it doesn't take AI for the robots themselves to have 90% of this impact. All those jokes about AI meaning "Actually Indians"? Well, the same robots controlled not by artificial intelligence but by remote control from cheap 3rd world labourers who charge $5/day, will make current arguments about the effect of immigration on unemployment look laughably naïve. Likewise, unfortunately, crime, because one thing we can guarantee is that someone's going to share their password or access token and some rich person's cheap robot servant will become Mr. Stabby the unknown assassin.
modeless|4 months ago
The important thing is that this is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like fusion. This is something that will happen.
rsynnott|4 months ago
Meanwhile, in 1950: "the important thing is that fusion is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like the eradication of all disease [there was a time in the 40s and 50s where people, a bit over-excited about then-new antibiotics and chemotherapy, often did believe this]. This is something that _will happen."
ben_w|4 months ago
While true, I would suggest two things:
First, that nobody actually knows how long it will take to make fully-general AI to drive robots, humanoid or otherwise. Look how long self-driving cars have taken, and that they're still geo-fenced.
Second, that it doesn't take AI for the robots themselves to have 90% of this impact. All those jokes about AI meaning "Actually Indians"? Well, the same robots controlled not by artificial intelligence but by remote control from cheap 3rd world labourers who charge $5/day, will make current arguments about the effect of immigration on unemployment look laughably naïve. Likewise, unfortunately, crime, because one thing we can guarantee is that someone's going to share their password or access token and some rich person's cheap robot servant will become Mr. Stabby the unknown assassin.
rhetocj23|4 months ago
chronci739|4 months ago
Not in our lifetime.
The iPhone came out less than 20 years ago.
And what, you scan QR codes at restaurants with iphones?