His argument is not that AI is not useful, it's that it's not financially sustainable at the current prices being charged for it - and additionally AI start-ups have 0 moat. Both of which likely are true.
Unfortunately, his argument very often happens to be that AI is not useful, that there are no customers for it, that AI coding agents do not work...
I happen to agree with the overall sentiment (that AI buildout is overextending the tech sector and the financial markets), but he is utterly fixated on the evils of AI and unable to admit either the current usefulness or the future potential of the technology. This does not make him look like an honest broker.
The rambling nature of his posts also makes it harder to properly argue against them as he keeps repeating the same points over and over; some of them are decent but there is certainly a gish gallop feeling to the whole thing.
> If 1 Billion people voluntarily use a product and many claim to be productive, there must be something good about the product right?
Not necessarily. That METR study was interesting in that participants reported that they were more productive, but the hard data disagreed. This is incredibly common when looking at humans, we're generally bad at knowing what hurts or helps us in this sphere.
And personally, I think LLMs are super useful, but I'm pretty sceptical about valuations and returns in this space over the short to medium term.
fred_is_fred|4 months ago
edstarch|4 months ago
I happen to agree with the overall sentiment (that AI buildout is overextending the tech sector and the financial markets), but he is utterly fixated on the evils of AI and unable to admit either the current usefulness or the future potential of the technology. This does not make him look like an honest broker.
The rambling nature of his posts also makes it harder to properly argue against them as he keeps repeating the same points over and over; some of them are decent but there is certainly a gish gallop feeling to the whole thing.
disgruntledphd2|4 months ago
Not necessarily. That METR study was interesting in that participants reported that they were more productive, but the hard data disagreed. This is incredibly common when looking at humans, we're generally bad at knowing what hurts or helps us in this sphere.
And personally, I think LLMs are super useful, but I'm pretty sceptical about valuations and returns in this space over the short to medium term.
gloosx|4 months ago
A billion people drink Coke every day, yes, and billions also have cavities, obesity, and diabetes.
Majorities also once thought the Earth was flat.