[ohdeardear]

Their web-application is worth $200,000. The software of the training infrastructure is worth perhaps $2M; the inference infrastructure is worth perhaps $500,000. Their hardware is worth nothing in 3 years. Their B2B relations are worth perhaps $5M. The "data" they have is worth nothing in 5 years, because a sufficiently smart model will be able to learn without human feedback.

They have no moat. So, how do you get to $4B?

I think the models are wrong way too often for relatively simple queries, so unless they give a secret prompt like "be wrong a lot in the free version" to users, it's basically worthless.

[umanwizard]

> The "data" they have is worth nothing in 5 years, because a sufficiently smart model will be able to learn without human feedback.

This is a huge assumption.

[array_key_first]

To be fair, OpenAI not going under is built on even larger assumptions.

[JamesBarney]

Where are you getting these numbers? And how would you appraise the value of the windsurf IP which sold for 2.4b?

[handfuloflight]

He's probably estimating the cost to produce these, after the fact.

[handfuloflight]

Too bad that's not how much they spent on that all of that, though.