[wernerb]

This is referenced in a sci fi book "The dark forest" of the series "The 3 body problem". It sets a convincing narrative that because of time taken for observation and response and development speed of society it is most likely that all civilizations that announce themselves would likely be a threat in terms of technological supremacy eventually to observing civilizations. In other words, we don't hear anything because any sufficiently advanced civilization would not want to risk being discovered. I.e., the "dark silent forest".

[Balgair]

I never did buy the dark forest argument. I mean, even in the books, there were smidgeons of humanity left over. And then all the dimension collapsing strangeness. You just can never be sure.

I dunno, it just reeks of the culture of suspicion in communist China. A product of that place and time.

My own idea is the 'used car salesman' idea of the universe. (Reeking of my own mind and place and time). To me, economics will rule in the galactic community. In that water, metals, energy, it's all cheap and everywhere. No need to have any competition over it. No, the only scarce thing is life and then even more it's intelligence. Any other civilization will be desperate to get rights over us and our history.

So, to me, the aliens will come to us loud and proud. Balloons and banners.

And of course, a contract as long as a the rings of Saturn, with print as small as the atoms.

We shouldn't be wary of the weapons, but the lawyers

[MoreQARespect]

I sincerely hope aliens dont end up being space americans. earth has oil and wmds.

[antonvs]

I agree, the dark forest argument seems rooted in a kind of paranoia bordering on the insane. No sane culture says “we better just exterminate anyone else we come across just in case,” which is essentially the threat that the dark forest is guarding against. And a culture that does act that way is likely to end up exterminating itself.

[protocolture]

>So, to me, the aliens will come to us loud and proud. Balloons and banners.

Charles Stross' Singularity Sky seems the most reasonable to me. Superintelligent computers trade unimaginable technology (their infintely replicable trash) for their most sought after asset (new forms of entertainment) and then just piss off to another world having completely bent our cultural development.

[wernerb]

in the book it's literally called the "chain of suspicion", pretty sure it's quite culturally colored

[lowbloodsugar]

Contracts are useless without a way to enforce them and any aliens that already have the means to enforce them won't bother having us sign contracts.

[vecter]

The dark forest is such an obviously false theory to me. Its axioms are:

1. Survival is the primary goal of all civilizations.

Agree.

2. Resources in the universe are finite.

True in the theoretical sense, but false in the practical sense.

3. Civilizations cannot be certain of others’ intentions.

Not obviously true or false.

4. Communication is dangerous.

This is such a strong axiom and is almost certainly false.

Its conclusion from applying the four axioms is that preemptive annihilation is the rational strategy.

As an alien civilization, if your strategy for survival in the cosmos is to "immediately and totally annihilate any sign of life", then that is almost a surely losing strategy. If intelligent life is prevalent, and the cost of annihilating a species is so low that they can just do it willy-nilly, then all it takes is one surviving colony to use the same superweapon against you and you're finished. Oh, you'd also have to be annihilating species left and right across the galaxy without revealing your location. And in the worst case, you've just pissed off all the known alien entities in your galactic neighborhood. Good luck to you.

It makes for fun writing, but I don't understand how anyone can take it seriously.

[lelanthran]

> 3. Civilizations cannot be certain of others’ intentions.

> Not obviously true or false.

"Intentions are uncertain" is true, though.

If you are claiming that it is possible to be certain of other civilisations intentions, I am very skeptical.

[socalgal2]

how is the same thing not true of every creature on earth. Or every tribe? and yet here we are

[wernerb]

Distance and time. Time is a weapon for a civilization to develop