[txru]

This might be paranoia, but could this be state sponsored?

I can see a lot of reasons for Belarus and Russia to create lots of contacts in EU airspace. The strategy is called "salami slicing" [0]

Especially in light of the point the others are making-- this is a really unreliable form of smuggling.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_slicing_tactics

[codyb]

According to the Enforcer's (https://www.youtube.com/@EnforcerOfficial) stream yesterday

They just use prevailing wind routes, and toss tons of balloons up, and have 'em float over the border cause cigarette taxes are so high in Europe that it's worth it.

And then there's people waiting along the wind path to pick up the balloons as they come down.

There's a lot of inefficiencies built into smuggling operations. You can absolutely grab huge amounts of smuggled items in busts and not end up denting profits for the smugglers cause they're smuggling so much (see cocaine, fentanyl, cigarettes in blue states in America).

I wouldn't entirely rule out the Russians or Belarussions doing probing moves, but the Enforcer's been a great source of information for these events as they occur.

There's a fair number of articles from previous encounters - https://fortune.com/2025/10/05/hot-air-balloons-smuggling-ci...

It's entirely possible that the operations are in cahoots and this is an intelligence operation being conducted as a smuggling operation.

[toss1]

Entirely likely, and my first thought. It would be an ideal and cheap way for Russia to probe responses and results with complete plausible deniability. Jsut testing for another route to destabilize targets.

It wouldn't be a bit surprising from a bloc known for weaponizing regional poverty and migration by aggravating wars to stimulate migration and even literally bussing migrants the borders of Poland and other countries to create instability in target countries.

Or, it could just be some smuggling crew going wild to meet some deadline or get stuff shipped before a coming crackdown. Or both.

[DonHopkins]

> this is a really unreliable form of smuggling

It's a reliable way to spread bad breath and cancer.

[janwl]

Consider you may be spending too much time reading West-aligned news sources.

[txru]

I haven't found much utility in reading Russian-language sources, though I can read the language.

Unfortunately I'm not extrapolating, this fits within a very mature pattern. See 'Little Green Men' in lead-up to Ukraine invasion and the drones violating airspace that Poland has been shooting down.

[ulbu]

because everything that Russia-aligned news sources say about the war in Ukraine makes a grand and indivisible amount of sense.