[starchild3001]

I recently downloaded about 10 years of monthly price returns for QQQ, TQQQ, NVDA, GBTC, and a few others. Then I asked ChatGPT and Gemini (separately) to find the portfolio that maximizes an adjusted CAGR — roughly, mean return minus ½ × standard deviation².

Result: 70% NVDA, 30% GBTC (Bitcoin), and 0% QQQ or TQQQ. Honestly, not a bad mix — especially for a small, high-risk slice of your portfolio.

Next, I compared TQQQ (Triple Qs) vs. QQQ using the same 10-year monthly data. The optimizer picked 100% TQQQ, which again makes sense if you’re doing this in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) or IRA and only with money you’re willing to take some risk on.

Then I expanded the dataset — 55 years of returns across major asset classes (S&P 500, gold, short- and long-term Treasuries, corporate bonds, real estate, etc.) — and asked for the optimal portfolio. The winner: ~85% S&P 500, 15% gold, though 75/25 gives nearly the same return with a better Sharpe ratio.

A few quick takeaways:

Gold → GLDM ETF is the best vehicle.

QQQ → QQQM or TQQQ are the best versions.

And if you’re feeling adventurous: 70% NVDA, 30% IBIT (Bitcoin) isn’t crazy.

For what it’s worth, I’ve been running 75% stocks / 25% gold for a while now, but I’m thinking of carving out ~10% of the stock portion for a more aggressive tilt: TQQQ (6%), NVDA (2%), IBIT (1%) — because why not?

[astrange]

Are those pre or post tax returns? Gold is taxed as a collectible which is pretty bad.

Thinking about it, my recommendation is read:

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/index/

and then after maxing your 401k, open a Betterment account, and then max your HSA if applicable. The tax savings easily best custom portfolio picking.

[smcin]

"the portfolio that maximizes an adjusted CAGR" over the ranges 2015-2025? Isn't that one just massively overfitting to the unique geopolitical events of 2016-current? 1970-2025 sounds better. But still that's baking in the USD exchange rate.

What happens if you backtest it by finding the equivalent portfolios for 1998-2008 (or even 1919-1929?)