[kode95]

I found this interesting: "Still, despite all the hype about how AI coding tools will replace software engineers, software engineering is still one of the most secure jobs you can have today, relative to most other white-collar jobs."

[wongarsu]

There is a lot of induced demand in software engineering. We are still in the realm where cheaper software means that people want more and more complex software. And that demand increase is more than enough to offset any efficiency increases

Meanwhile the amount of accounting that has to be done is pretty inelastic. Whenever accounting gets more efficient you just reduce the number of accountants instead of doing more accounting

Creative is somewhere in between. Not completely static demand, but not extremely elastic either. The healthy rise in postings for creative directors indicates that the cost reduction has lead to more art being done, but the increase in demand isn't big enough to offset the job losses in the rank and file positions

[saghm]

It's funny, almost every conversation I have about the fact that I work as a software engineer with new people I meet nowadays seems to include them asking if I'm worried about AI stealing my job. Maybe it's something that people ask everyone nowadays regardless of what industry they work in, but at least as far as I can tell, the type of work I do doesn't seem in any apparent danger of being replaced by AI any time soon.

[philipwhiuk]

I assume that they think SWEs have a better grasp on it than non-tech folk.

[jeffbee]

It's because journalists are still big mad that the internet wrecked the newspaper business, therefore the news constantly reports lies about how the tech industry is collapsing. The more news you watch and the less personal contact you have with the industry, the more likely you are to believe that techies are jumping out of office windows in despair (hi, Mom).

[baq]

as of today that's probably true, but if the labs manage to keep increasing the 50% time horizon (defined by METR as 'the length of tasks (measured by how long they take human professionals) that it can complete autonomously with 50% probability') at the current pace, it might not be for long. Exponentials are hard enough to forecast if you kinda sorta know the parameters, and we don't have that comfort today.

[batchfile]

This makes sense to me.

Until Software Engineers have automated away all the other jobs with AI & software they'll be safe. That's going to take a long time.

Replacing software engineers with AI only affects the bottom line of software companies. Companies are usually fine with increasing the bottom line if they can exponentially increase the top line. I think software engineers will provide that capability for at least the next 10-15 years.

[sixhobbits]

I think that's an over-simplistic view - at the moment there are many, many software engineers hired by companies who are betting on AI being madly profitable. If those expectations change, we could see more cascading layoffs, which will mean those engineers will go looking at more traditional places like banks, which means they'll stop hiring, which means it'll be harder to someone who is looking for a new job to find one, even though not all jobs have yet been automated.

[empath75]

Did the invention of compilers eliminate the need for programmers or make them more productive and valuable? LLM coding is really not in the most abstract sense any different from compiling a higher level language to a lower level language.

[mywittyname]

> LLM coding is really not in the most abstract sense any different from compiling a higher level language to a lower level language.

Hard disagree here. Anecdotally, know a few people who can't write a Java program that will compile, who can leverage ChatGPT to produce functional websites.

A good friend of mine ChatGPTed his way into a masters degree that involved a lot of coding. A good 97% of his degree was done by AI, and the other 3% was me helping him troubleshoot he couldn't get AI to solve.

LLM is vastly different from a compiler/translator. Despite the joke, you can't just fire up Python with import website and have a functional website. But you can basically do that with LLMs, which will then add features as requested. It's not perfect, nor guaranteed to be functional, but it is quite a bit more capable than a compiler is for such tasks.

At my work, the sales guys are using AI tools to rapidly prototype features on our website with prospects. While it doesn't do all the work, it can produce useful HTML templates that the front-end team can make functional.

[stuffn]

Certainly the jobs that were around for bespoke compilers were eliminated with the unification of compilers (GCC, Microsoft Visual C++). How many of those people transitioned to other roles I don't know. But the number of compiler jobs has been declining forever at this point.

[moneywoes]

what about amount of churn in software engineering?

[9rx]

At the end of the day, "AI" is just another programming language, albeit one that is much more accessible to the layman. When using AI, you become a software engineer. So it stands to reason that software engineering jobs are strong.

But what about pay? Elevator operator jobs have never been more prevalent, but increased accessibility to the layman pushed the price to zero.

[lm28469]

> When using AI, you become a software engineer.

When using a pen you become a poet ? lol

Most people who code aren't software engineers, you certainly can't extend the definition to every AI users

[dylan604]

> When using AI, you become a software engineer.

No. You do not. It may make you a developer, at best. I don't even call my self a software engineer, because I'm not. I'm a self taught coder that has spent 25+ years gaining experience, but I've never graduated from a school with any kind on engineering degree. I started CSE way back in the 90s, but stopped because life got in the way.

Maybe you're joking, but you just know people actually feel this way. They have no idea the difference of a coder and an SWE, and flippant comments don't help

[rvz]

> When using AI, you become a software engineer.

Stopped reading.

VR flight simulator software is accessible to the layman. Does that make them qualified to be a captain (pilot-in-command) for a commercial passenger plane?

[eMPee584]

At the end of this day.. and of the next. But at some point, the tool will "suddenly" turn into a versatile agent, and that time might be a lot sooner than most expect (c.f. "exponential growth surprise factor"...)