[madamelic]

Robot Taxis will be competing on price. Whoever can release the lowest cost per mile and most reliable taxi will take lion's share simply because consumers are generally price conscious about transport. Very few will be analyzing the data if two are judged to be 'safe enough', it will come down to price.

Companies like BYD and Tesla are positioned well for that if they can get their AV functionality proven out as both are fully integrated car manufacturers.

Waymo doesn't have in-house manufacturing and is, to my knowledge, purely software so they have lots of vendors along with a relatively low output of vehicles. Their 2025 and 2026 plan is to build 2,500 new cars per year. Each Waymo car currently costs over $100k. Even if Tesla was pushing out Model Ys as their robotaxi platform, they could flood the market very easily in both scale and price per mile _if_ UFSD (unsupervised FSD) was proven.

[4kchiefofstaff]

I did a basic napkin calculation in the other comment. The price of the car is not that relevant per km than you make it to be.

I think self driving will be a commodity in the long term and every car will be able to do it. If Tesla will solve it purly by cameras, every other car manufacturer will be able to add this too. Perhaps a few years later but they will be able to do it too.

So Tesla has to leverage the first mover advantage, and they are loosing this already.

And while Musk says robot taxis are fundamental to tesla, the taxi market is actually not that big. All the broad nice areas like small cities etc. will buy a small fleet of cars and i don't think the price point of a Tesla will that crazy much cheaper than whatever everyone else will have that it will be obvous for everyone to just buy the Tesla model.

I alone will not use Tesla alone for Musk. Despite that, people might want to pay a euro more to have a SVU to have space or higher entry point than choosing the cheapest Tesla model to drive with.

Tesla can't flood the market very easily. If they could, they would have done it. And its expected that Tesla will not suddenly find the solution to their problems. They are optimizing away the next 9 at the 9x% reliability. Every additional 9 will take the same amount as the previous 9. And the nines are quite relevant if you look how many km these cars will have to drive.

[dachworker]

Fair point, but here's my counter: consumers won't analyze the data but insurance companies will.

[vel0city]

If Americans were price conscious about transport they wouldn't be driving $60,000, 15mpg, oversized pickup trucks to go drop off their kids at daycare and commute to their office job, they'd be riding the bus.

Most Americans don't seem to consider the cost of their transportation in the slightest.

[jjav]

> If Americans were price conscious about transport they wouldn't be driving $60,000, 15mpg, oversized pickup trucks to go drop off their kids at daycare and commute to their office job, they'd be riding the bus.

> Most Americans don't seem to consider the cost of their transportation in the slightest.

Time is also an important cost. It would take us about 90 minutes from home to school to drop off my kid by bus (plus walking, since no bus stops near the school).

By car, it is 15 minutes worst case if I hit all red lights.

By car we leave home 8:15, kid is in school on time and I'm in my work meetings easily by 9:00.

By bus, we'd have to leave home at 6am and I might just barely make it in time for 9am meetings, or often be late.

So yes, people do consider the cost of transportation but it is not just dollars, also time.

[madamelic]

People who use ride share use more than one app because they can pick the one that is the cheapest. The people who use these will be price conscious.

Of course there will be other factors like amenities.

Personally, I think 'style' is going to be a non-insignificant factor to it as well. Few normies will want to get out of a 'nerd car' that has bulbous sensors all over it if they can pay a bit more to have a cooler looking ride, it's the Prius effect.

The style thing is just my opinion though but price will be the major one. People will tolerate an ugly robotaxi if it is significantly cheaper or more convenient.

[xnx]

> If Americans were price conscious about transport ... they'd be riding the bus.

Have you considered that Americans might value their time differently than you? That might change your equation.

[Workaccount2]

They do, but they price it in cost per month.

Finacialization is what made $65,000 cars "cheap".