[mjparrott]

This really depends on the definition of a 'crash'. For example, fatal accident > insurance claim > minor incident.

If we use insurance claim as the definition then: - The average driver files an insurance claim for a car crash about once every 17.9 years [1] - The average driver drives 13,476 miles per year [2] - This means one insurance claim per 241,220 miles driven by a human driver.

1. https://www.gtslawfirm.com/what-are-the-chances-of-getting-i... 2. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

[TheDong]

However, by percentage far more accidents happen in cities (including minor scrapes while parking etc), and the average driver's miles are a mix of city and highway (perhaps around 50/50? Numbers for that are hard to find).

The waymo/robotaxi driving is basically entirely city driving, so I think I think it's reasonable to say human accidents for that type of driving are higher, possibly nearly twice as high as the estimate you got.