[lovecg]

This seems to assume unusual optimism or foresight, most people don’t invest their life savings 100% into stocks and don’t hold on to 100% of their company vests through ups and downs. You might as well say “assuming he put all his money in NVDA…”

[assemblyman]

It's a back-of-the-envelope calculation not a precise one. It doesn't take foresight to invest in SP500. DCAing (dollar-cost averaging) into an index fund is actually the recommended savings strategy with a short-term cash balance of 6 months-2 years of cash savings depending on your plans (sabbatical etc.), especially when one is decades away from retirement age.

I only included meta because he works/worked at meta and it's not unusual for people to just leave their rsus in their accounts after they vested. I agree though that one shouldn't pick stocks that happened to explode (e.g. nvda).

There are several unrealistic assumptions I did make:

* Presumably when someone starts, they earn less than in recent years. He probably wasn't making huge amounts his first few years. Amounts invested in earlier years are smaller but have more time to compound and amounts invested in recent years are larger but have had less time to compound.

* Returns aren't constant.

* I pulled the $2 million/yr out of thin air. It could be $1 million/yr or even $10 million/yr. I have no idea what the overall head of a project like PyTorch would make.

* Everyone's expenses are different. In and around NYC, one can live on $80k/year, $120-150k/year as well as as on $1 million/yr. I assumed zero since I wanted a nice even $1 million/yr savings. Maybe it was $500k/yr of savings in which case all the numbers should be halved.

In any case, I can't see how one wouldn't end up with at least $10 million in a position like this with 10 years at meta. Unless one buys a $5 million unit in Manhattan and is burdened by a high mortgage.