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thriftwy | 3 months ago

By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors the Internet was worth investing in. When I realized this one day, sitting in my cubicle, I jumped up like Archimedes in his bathtub, except instead of "Eureka!" I was shouting "Sell!"

Это к вопросу о эпицикле Оракла-Нвидии.

discuss

zerosizedweasle|3 months ago

For sure. People seem to think that you can just do all the market moving announcements that Altman has done and then say "Oops I don't have the money". Crashing into reality will bring a lot of pain.

ajross|3 months ago

The problem with that story is the dates. If you sold in 1998 when PG realized the ponzi characteristic of the market[1] you'd have lost ("lost") a ton of money. The nasdaq composite in June of 1998 was about $1800. It reached a peak of $5000 (!!!!) just before the crash.

The advice is correct, but in practice it's only helpful if you can time the crash, which you can't. Cycle-driven run-ups in advance of bubble burst events can be shockingly long.

[1] Which is roughly where we are right now with the AI bubble.

spwa4|3 months ago

But it crashed down to $1300, so there's still something to be said about it.

nine_zeros|3 months ago

> By 2026, Nvidia was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about AI. One reason they were excited was Nvidia's revenue growth. So they invested in new AI startups and cloud hyperscalers. The startups and hyperscalers then used the money to buy Nvidia chips. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Nvidia, and further convinced investors AI was worth investing in.

Fixed this for anyone still not processing the bubble.

rco8786|3 months ago

I think everyone recognizes the bubble, the question is when does it pop and how.

At the end of the day it's still all about timing the market, which is hard to impossible no matter the conditions.