[enslavedrobot]

The market will tell. My cost basis for Tesla is $16.96 because instead of not renewing my driver's license I bought a bunch of shares in the company in 2018. My decision wasn't based on "believing Elon" it was based on analysis.

The argument that Tesla sucks because they haven't delivered on their promises is kinda illogical. Tesla is closer to a viable robotaxi, and grid scale energy arbitrage business than they ever have been and the share price reflects it.

With a P/E ~250+ Tesla should be an automatic short if your analysis is correct. I have $2 million long in the company. In 2035 it will be >$8 million. In 2035 Waymo will be a footnote.

[ben_w]

> My cost basis for Tesla is $16.96 because instead of not renewing my driver's license I bought a bunch of shares in the company in 2018. My decision wasn't based on "believing Elon" it was based on analysis.

I also bought shares. Sold them all for a profit this year.

My beliefs (all of them) are based on analysing what information I have access to, which in the case of "I won't need to drive" includes things said by Tesla which turned out to be falsehoods, and also other things not relevant to this topic.

The reasons I sold those shares include not only the CEO's failures to deliver, but also that other shareholders like yourself keep making excuses for the CEO's failures thus suggesting nothing will be fixed, and also that the CEO angers his customer bases to the point that showrooms get smashed up and products arsoned.

Normal people do not consider such things to be signs of "winning".

> The argument that Tesla sucks because they haven't delivered on their promises is kinda illogical.

I didn't say "suck", I said didn't deserve their current price.

What is illogical is that you're defending them despite them making false statements about what they could deliver that got them sued.

They're only "a bit weird", not "suck" by product range/market segments served (Cybertruck excluded); by sales and so on, Tesla is a perfectly adequate *$50 billion doller market cap* car company — like Hyundai, who make more profit and more cars, and has a robotics company in the same group.

The key there is "50 billion" not "trillion or so". Tesla is not magic.

> Tesla is closer to a viable robotaxi, and grid scale energy arbitrage business than they ever have been and the share price reflects it.

"closer […] than they ever have been" is still behind the competition.

The world has been moving on with each of these things while Tesla dithers and their CEO is distracted by SpaceX, his other AI company that owns his social media company, and offending much of his target market with ham-fisted political involvement.

> With a P/E ~250+ Tesla should be an automatic short if your analysis is correct.

Shorts are strongly associated with the phrase "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" for good reason.

> I have $2 million long in the company. In 2035 it will be >$8 million. In 2035 Waymo will be a footnote.

You yourself have said their market price relfects a "10-20%" chance. Your own 80-90% bet is necessarily that Tesla does not.

That said, given everything I'm seeing in the US, I'd put P(sufficient hyperinflation by 2035 to get that proportional change in market cap, conditional on Tesla actually still exists) ~= 0.1-0.25

Also on the subject of 10%, Musk has claimed variously 5%, 10%, and 20% chances of AI causing an apocalypse/wiping out humanity. Anyone who actually believes him on 10% (I don't, not that I have power to make such a call even if I did), should be willing to let 800 million people die to stop anyone (including Musk) developing it.