[ddp26]

One interesting finding in Stockfisher data is that a lot of these business pivots are actually planned by managers years in advance, in their 10-K and 10-Q filings.

Yes, managers are not good forecasters. But they do get certain things right. And if you figure out the patterns of what types of manager promises tend to play out, and assess them individually for their reliability, you can reason about these business model changes decently well.