We can already see it. Take a look at AI image generation a few years ago. People were creating complex prompts, tweaking values, adding overlay models, stringing together several AI tools to get to a decent output. Now you can get a better result typing a simple phrase into one of the many major AI web interfaces. Tools like adobe have simplified all these features to the point where they can be learnt in under 5mins.
This is only going to be the start once AI gets good it will be so easy to use I doubt there will be any human unable to use it. Its the nature of natural language queries and companies working to build a model that can handle "anything" thrown at it.
I'm sure there are people who are more skilled at using a cell phone than I am. It doesn't matter.
Similarly, we all have had co-workers or friends who aren't very good at using search engines. They still use them and largely still have jobs.
Now that I think of it, most regularly-used technology is like this. Cars, dishwashers, keyboards, electric shavers. There is a baseline level of skill required for operation, but the marginal benefits for being more skilled than the baseline drop off pretty quickly.
I think you mean precedents but in any case the precedent is that often a new tech is heralded with “this time is different! Ignore the precedents” and yet so far that has been wrong every time.
One day the sun won’t rise in the morning but it’s not something I’m going to plan on happening in my lifetime.
AuthAuth|3 months ago
This is only going to be the start once AI gets good it will be so easy to use I doubt there will be any human unable to use it. Its the nature of natural language queries and companies working to build a model that can handle "anything" thrown at it.
yesfitz|3 months ago
I'm sure there are people who are more skilled at using a cell phone than I am. It doesn't matter.
Similarly, we all have had co-workers or friends who aren't very good at using search engines. They still use them and largely still have jobs.
Now that I think of it, most regularly-used technology is like this. Cars, dishwashers, keyboards, electric shavers. There is a baseline level of skill required for operation, but the marginal benefits for being more skilled than the baseline drop off pretty quickly.
mgrandl|3 months ago
zeroonetwothree|3 months ago
One day the sun won’t rise in the morning but it’s not something I’m going to plan on happening in my lifetime.
tines|3 months ago
nosianu|3 months ago
Yes?
Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators.
Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist.
Programming.
Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before.
Photography, more than one big jump in usability. Film cameras, projectors/screens.
Transportation: From navigation to piloting aircraft or cars. Originally you had to be a part-time mechanic.
Many advanced (i.e. more complex than e.g. a hammer) tools in manufacturing or at home.
frde_me|3 months ago
If I give an accountant an electronic calculator and a problem to solve, they'll be more efficient than me
If I give someone who spent thousands of hours on a computer a task on it, they'll be able to do more than my parents
If I give someone that writes a lot a ballpen, their writing will be faster and more legible than someone like me who barely writes on paper.
raincole|3 months ago
zeroonetwothree|3 months ago