[gusfoo]

> And how far out is that?

These guys have a 100% market share https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems at the 'extreme' end and, obviously, everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise.

Here's a good background article on the topic: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/12/...

[Nextgrid]

> everyone else is trying but haven't really shown much promise

What was the incentive/funding for their attempts? In a non-national-security scenario it makes sense not to try too hard because you can just buy ASML's solution.

With China it's a bit different, if they decide it's a matter of national security and pour Manhattan-project-levels of money/resources into it, they could make faster progress.

[dragontamer]

Well yeah. No one is saying that China cannot do that. Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships.

Force Chinas growth to be more expensive. It has nothing to do with not believing China can do it, it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.

[mtrovo]

Agree, especially given the track record of China outcompeting in other markets where they got blocked.