> Brooke Nichols, the Boston University epidemiologist and mathematical modeller, has maintained a respected tracker of current impact. The model is conservative, assuming, for example, that the State Department will fully sustain the programs that remain. As of November 5th, it estimated that U.S.A.I.D.’s dismantling has already caused the deaths of six hundred thousand people, two-thirds of them children.
Which links to Impact Counter [0], if you want to read more on how they reached those figures.
I think it's fair to say with absolute certainty that thousands of people have died as a direct result of dismantling USAID, but that we aren't certain of the exact magnitude. One model estimated it's around 600 thousand, but we don't have exact figures because of the disruptions.
Do you think there's a way this could be communicated more clearly? I'm not trying to be deceptive in how I present this information, and I could be persuaded to re-evaluate the exact figure if presented with a better analysis.
For one thing maybe they could try being honest. Looking at the methodology it seems like the calculation here is a completely unrealistic absolute upper bound of how many lives could have been saved:
> Based on the budget for the 2024 financial year, USAID's nutrition program was allocated $168 million dollars [3]:. It is estimated that the cost of treating a child for severe malnutrition, while varied by context, is between $100-$200 [4]:. Assuming: a similar budget of $160 million dollars in 2025, that this budget is utilized for treatment of severe acute malnutrition in children and that on average treatment per child costs $150 (midpoint of range), approximately 1.12 million children with severe malnutrition would remain untreated as a result of USAID funding freeze and discontinuation in 2025.
> This would result in approximately 168,000 (112,000 – 224,000) annual deaths in children under 5. Additionally, children who survive but do not receive treatment will love with long-term morbidity. One element of this is compromised immune systems, leaving them vulnerable to other infections like diarrheal disease and pneumonia. These estimates do not capture that morbidity.
I’m not totally sure what point you’re making, but I don’t see an inconsistency between the two portions of comment that you quoted here.
“Thousands of people” covers at least 3 orders of magnitude, depending how loose you get with the language… I don’t see the contradiction in “the error bands are wider without the high-fidelity surveillance, but even from fuzzier sources, the absolute minimum is definitely in the thousands.”
The implication is that the death toll is under-reported due to the disruption of the means by which those deaths would be reported and logged. In other words, those thousands of deaths are just the ones we know about.
TheAceOfHearts|3 months ago
> Brooke Nichols, the Boston University epidemiologist and mathematical modeller, has maintained a respected tracker of current impact. The model is conservative, assuming, for example, that the State Department will fully sustain the programs that remain. As of November 5th, it estimated that U.S.A.I.D.’s dismantling has already caused the deaths of six hundred thousand people, two-thirds of them children.
Which links to Impact Counter [0], if you want to read more on how they reached those figures.
I think it's fair to say with absolute certainty that thousands of people have died as a direct result of dismantling USAID, but that we aren't certain of the exact magnitude. One model estimated it's around 600 thousand, but we don't have exact figures because of the disruptions.
Do you think there's a way this could be communicated more clearly? I'm not trying to be deceptive in how I present this information, and I could be persuaded to re-evaluate the exact figure if presented with a better analysis.
[0] https://www.impactcounter.com/dashboard?view=table&sort=inte...
terminalshort|3 months ago
> Based on the budget for the 2024 financial year, USAID's nutrition program was allocated $168 million dollars [3]:. It is estimated that the cost of treating a child for severe malnutrition, while varied by context, is between $100-$200 [4]:. Assuming: a similar budget of $160 million dollars in 2025, that this budget is utilized for treatment of severe acute malnutrition in children and that on average treatment per child costs $150 (midpoint of range), approximately 1.12 million children with severe malnutrition would remain untreated as a result of USAID funding freeze and discontinuation in 2025.
> This would result in approximately 168,000 (112,000 – 224,000) annual deaths in children under 5. Additionally, children who survive but do not receive treatment will love with long-term morbidity. One element of this is compromised immune systems, leaving them vulnerable to other infections like diarrheal disease and pneumonia. These estimates do not capture that morbidity.
throws-up|3 months ago
[deleted]
alwa|3 months ago
“Thousands of people” covers at least 3 orders of magnitude, depending how loose you get with the language… I don’t see the contradiction in “the error bands are wider without the high-fidelity surveillance, but even from fuzzier sources, the absolute minimum is definitely in the thousands.”
[ETA: A June study in the Lancet estimates the cuts to USAID (if sustained) will result in 14 million deaths by 2030: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... ]
mintplant|3 months ago
danparsonson|3 months ago