[sschnei8]

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

[01100011]

and shorting something priced in a currency is effectively going long on the currency as well. If the USD takes a dive due to, idk, increasing populism from both major parties, stocks will do quite well in nominal terms. Your shorts will burn and you'll end up far worse than just staying in cash.

For most people, the best way to short is to just hold cash equivalents like short-term treasuries.

[skluug]

You can use the cash you get from shorting to invest in other assets. Shorting doesn’t require you to hold cash.

[stogot]

What is an example of shorting something not priced in a currency?

[bequanna]

Said another way: “being too early is the same as being wrong”

[cal_dent]

I’d change to “can be the same as being wrong” and agree. All these people out there thinking their being oh so clever with bubble this short that etc. Everyone knows.

One of the idiosyncrasies of modern human society is that we’re pretty good at knowing how things we create or initiate can go wrong, particularly with the economy. We’re just not great at perfectly understanding the degree of risk or the probability or at what point/level it goes wrong. That’s why I’ve never really got all the chat of “economists have predicted xx of the last x recessions yadda yadda”. I’m fine with that, I’d be more concerned if they predicted 0 of the last x recessions.

[fhrjfjfnd]

Your quote is something that AI mania speculators often like to reassure themselves with, but consider the fact that it took 17 years for the NASDAQ to recover from the dotcom bubble when adjusting for inflation. What's being early by a year or two when the consequences take decades to heal over?

[DaveZale]

also you may have to pay interest on shorted shares. Better to take a Burry/Taleb approach of extreme option bets with small money.

[treetalker]

My understanding is that an extremely OTM put on a clear, strongly held thesis would be Burry-like, and many people would be able to do so.

But Taleb's point is that (non-insiders) cannot accurately predict regarding individual securities (hence derivatives), but can identify over-/under-priced OTM options — and that, trading these systematically, one can suffer many repeated "small" losses that become outweighed by the Big One that eventually (yet unpredictably) hits, thus generating overall positive expected value. But, as I further understand Taleb, most people don't have the huge capital that enables such a strategy, and that doctors, lawyers, dentists, etc., are better off making money by plying their professional services and perhaps investing in index funds and the like.

[oa335]

You will end up paying that "interest" on long put positions. The advantage of options is an ability to make more granular bets.

[hypeatei]

You also have to pay dividends on the shorted shares.

[matt3210]

The market is rational. If it's is not doing what you expect, then you are the irrational one.

[3eb7988a1663]

When pets.com is selling dog food for less than it costs, but the stock price keeps going up, that is rational?

[the__alchemist]

Thought terminating cliches only terminate thoughts if you allow them to.

[bdangubic]

this statement could be just replaced with TSLA :)

[rasz]

Nicola scam was still worth real money a good year after CEO conviction.