[joshuaheard]

The IPCC rates a collapse before 2100 as “unlikely but not impossible.”

[317070]

The IPCC has historically also underestimated the effect of climate change on the sea.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044...

[dredmorbius]

To further clarify, this is the research (from August 2025) which is cited in the CNN story which is the basis of the Dagens AI copypasta. "Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections".

[SilverElfin]

Is that true for all the metrics? Didn’t they overestimate sea level rise? I recall reading that actually levels are lower than the forecasts.

[anonymousiam]

You could say it that way, or you could say that they're currently overestimating the effects.

[fulafel]

When was it updated? The newer research seems up the probability.

Eg https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse...

[loeg]

It's presumably worth it for Iceland to take seriously even if the probability is low.

[Teever]

I was curious about whether or not the IPCC associates numerical values to words like "unlikely" so I looked it up:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/AR5_Uncertai...

They seem to be giving the word unlikely a range from 0-33%. I'm not sure how to reason about that 0% given that they also used the phrase "not impossible."

[Maxion]

AFAIK the IPCC are generally quite conservative on these matters. Newer research shows possible collapse occurring much sooner (Sometime between 2025-2095).