[iamgopal]

The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.

[rootusrootus]

I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case.

I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric).

I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.

[bryanlarsen]

> with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips

I've done 4 3000km road trips and intentionally took the EV leaving the ICE vehicle at home. It's a better car, and we need to stop to bathroom anyways, so charging isn't inconvenient. Saving a few hundred dollars in fuel is nice, too.

[impossiblefork]

For a while maybe, but cheap EVs are being manufactured in Europe as well, and while this could reduce petrol prices, it's also going to reduce the need for petrol stations, and I think makes petrol basically dead even in a cheap-petrol scenario.

A Renault Twingo is going to cost something like 20,000 euros. That's twice the price of a Dacia Sandero, but a Dacia Spring is 16,900. The difference is only 4000, which could easily be a year's petrol.

[fpoling]

A modern small and medium-sized car in Europe consumes like 4-6 liters/100 km. Even if one drives 15 thousands km/year (way above average) that gives like 900 liters of gasoline per year or like 1500-1700 euros with typical European prices.

And electricity is not free especially when using fast chargers. So at the end the savings is about 500-1000 euros per year. Which still is a good deal, but explains why people prefer to buy small gasoline cars. I think electric car premium must be below 2 thousand euros plus infrastructure must improve before gasoline car sales in Europe start to collapse.