[kevin948]

This has been exactly my mindset as well (another Seattle SWE/DS). The baseline capability has been improving and compounding, not getting worse. It'd actually be quite convenient if AI's capabilities stayed exactly where they are now; the real problems come if AI does work.

I'm extremely skeptical of the argument that this will end up creating jobs just like other technological advances did. I'm sure that will happen around the edges, but this is the first time thinking itself is being commodified, even if it's rudimentary in its current state. It feels very different from automating physical labor: most folks don't dream of working on an assembly line. But I'm not sure what's left if white collar work and creative work are automated en masse for "efficiency's" sake. Most folks like feeling like they're contributing towards something, despite some people who would rather do nothing.

To me it is clear that this is going to have negative effects on SWE and DS labor, and I'm unsure if I'll have a career in 5 years despite being a senior with a great track record. So, agreed. Save what you can.

[hodgesrm]

> the real problems come if AI does work.

Exactly. For example, what happens to open source projects where developers don't have access to the latest proprietary dev tools? Or, what happens to projects like Spring if AI tools can generate framework code from scratch? I've seen maven builds on Java projects that pull in hundreds or even thousands of libraries. 99% of that code is never even used.

The real changes to jobs will be driven by considerations like these. Not saying this will happen but you can't rule it out either.

edit: Added last sentence.

[didibus]

> It'd actually be quite convenient if AI's capabilities stayed exactly where they are now

That's what Im' crossing my fingers at, makes our job easier, but doesn't degrade our worth. It's the best possible outcome for devs.

[pseudalopex]

> I'm extremely skeptical of the argument that this will end up creating jobs just like other technological advances did. I'm sure that will happen around the edges, but this is the first time thinking itself is being commodified, even if it's rudimentary in its current state. It feels very different from automating physical labor: most folks don't dream of working on an assembly line.

Most people do not dream of working most white collar jobs. Many people dream of meaningful physical labor. And many people who worked in mines did not dream of being told to learn to code.

[kevin948]

The important piece here is that many people want to contribute to something intellectually, and a huge pathway for that is at risk of being significantly eroded. Permanently.

Your point stands that many people like physical labor. Whether they want to artisanally craft something, or desire being outside/doing physical or even menial labor more than sitting in an office. True, but that doesn't solve the above issue, just like it didn't in reverse. Telling miners to learn to code was... not great. And from my perspective neither is outsourcing our thinking en masse to AI.