[gbil]

Now thinking of this from the other side, 2 big DRAM producers are taking the risk to dedicate a very big part of their production to AI and if we assume they also have similar deals with other AI companies or big datacenters, what is their risk profile if the AI bubble bursts? Are they viable as companies then ? What is their plan B ?

[Maken]

Their risks are none. They are not increasing capacity, only selling the available one to the highest bidder. Whenever these AI companies run out of money, these producers can simply resume their regular business.

[redwood]

It only depends on whether they get addicted to the high prices.. as long as they can withstand a collapse in the prices then you're right they have minimal risk

[m4rtink]

Not sure about DRAM companies, but many businesses would still go under if they sold their annual production to a company that then goes bankrupt and won't pay anything for the delivered goods.

[Aurornis]

> what is their risk profile if the AI bubble bursts?

Exactly. This is why they’re not scrambling to invest in additional capacity. If these memory manufacturers went all in on new capacity it would take years to build out. If the bubble bursts, or even if it doesn’t burst and just tapers off back to normal demand, they would be in a bad position with excess manufacturing capacity that isn’t paying off.

[K0balt]

I think the price increases we are seeing are a direct result of the skepticism about AI scale viability. The big dram houses aren’t increasing capacity, due to the risks you mention.

So demand from other sources has to be suppressed through being priced out in order to meet those supply promises made to OAI in ignorance of their true scale.

This is OAI doing suppliers dirty by making economy distorting moves without transparency, intentionally distorting the market in an effort to hurt competitors.

Yet another example of the “free market” creating destruction for the general public.

As a thought experiment, replace “dram” with “rice” or another essential food stock. Market manipulation such as this is wildly irresponsible, anti-humanity and antithetical to public good. Wars are started over less.

This is an excellent example of the actual alignment of OpenAI as an organization. Yet we are to trust them with leading the way in the alignment of our manque oracles of truth and power?

[adventured]

> This is OAI doing suppliers dirty by making economy distorting moves without transparency, intentionally distorting the market in an effort to hurt competitors. Yet another example of the “free market” creating destruction for the general public.

At the speed OpenAI is growing, it's far more likely they're trying to protect themselves first, not harm competitors. The market only exists because it's free / semi free. Were it controlled by statist bureaucrats - which is the sole alternative back in reality - the situation would be drastically worse. Just ask Soviet Russia. You'd get your meager once every ten year DRAM ration and you'd like it.

The general public isn't the standard of morality or good. Invoking it is meaningless.

[dist-epoch]

> The big dram houses aren’t increasing capacity, due to the risks you mention.

Except they are

> SK hynix to boost DRAM production by a huge 8x in 2026, still won't be enough for RAM shortages

> It's also not just SK hynix that is boosting DRAM production capacity, with both Samsung and Micron rapidly increasing their respective DRAM production numbers.

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/109011/sk-hynix-to-boost-dram...